15221 Los Angeles St · Morning Glory, TX 79836

$88,445

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1932 7,560 sqft lot ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Owner is motivated. Buy a piece of history. Adobe home in between San Elizario and Fabens, off Socorro Rd. Water rights are available. Home is right on the Mission Trail. This comfortable dwelling was built by hand by the original owners for their family. Traditional adobe construction with custom made doors. When this farming community was thriving, This home served as a meeting place for the community. The living areas have room enough for dancing. The owner is selling this home ''as is'' condition. No repairs will be made. Listing subject to errors, omissions, and changes without notice. Info provided is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Owner is motivated. Make us an offer.

Key facts

• Adobe home
• Water rights
• Custom made doors

Tags

• ADOBE HOME
• WATER RIGHTS
• TRADITIONAL ADOBE CONSTRUCTION
• CUSTOM MADE DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed as fixer upper; Verify flood insurance
• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Utilities: No pool
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Adobe construction; Shingle/composition roof; Built area approximately 1525
• Exterior features: Back yard access; Fenced front and back yards

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop
• Flooring: Other (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Two or more living areas; Formal dining room and living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $740 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,510 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fabens ISD (town): math 13% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #809 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Fabens Middle (math 10% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 432 students, 94% FRL); Fabens H S (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 623 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 49% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($612 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,445

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.83%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.31% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $64,005
• Equity at exit: $46,441

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.24×
• Total profit: $154,512
• Equity at exit: $77,262

Cash invested: $24,765 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79836

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,613 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$464
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $411/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $740

Break-even live

Break-even rent $677

Max offer price $88,445

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $790	-5% $765	+0% $740	+5% $714	+10% $689
Rent	-10% $612	-5% $676	+0% $740	+5% $803	+10% $867
Rate	-1.0pp $784	-0.5pp $762	base $740	+0.5pp $717	+1.0pp $693

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,111
• Closing costs: $2,653
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $88,445 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $88,445 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $88,445 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $88,445 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,445 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $88,445 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $88,445 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,445 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,445 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $88,445 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 688-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $88,445 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $411 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,619 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,208/yr (+$101/mo · 294.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 14% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,954
• − Property taxes: −$411
• − Insurance: −$442
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − Depreciation: −$2,573
• Taxable income: $7,881
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,891
• After-tax cash flow: $6,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fabens ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818900
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -40.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $26,215
• Composite: 13.13/100
• National rank: #9559
• State rank: #809 of 826 in TX

Livability — Morning Glory

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1510
• US rank: #25804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,481
• Population (ZIP): 7,481

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 90% Two or more races 40% White 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 87%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 20% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Current HPI: 166.8578
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-42.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $88,445 GEPARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $99,798 GEPARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $99,998 GEPARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $98,998 GEPARMLS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $110,400 GEPARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $138,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $140,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-07-06 Price Changed $150,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $155,000 GEPARMLS
• 1998-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $411 · +22.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.