410 Lake Rd · Waskom, TX 75692

$127,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1995 1.51 ac lot $81/sqft · 9% below area Est $140k · 9% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on a peaceful, tree-shaded property, this 3-bedroom, 3-bath home at 410 Lake Road in Waskom, Texas offers space, privacy, and endless potential. The home features a large open living area with a fireplace, built-in shelving, and plenty of natural light, providing a comfortable layout ready for your personal touch. Outside, the property truly shines with a pond, barn, storage building, and an additional external building, making it ideal for hobbies, animals, equipment, or extra workspace. Surrounded by mature trees and open land, this property offers a quiet country setting while still being conveniently located near town and I-20. A great opportunity for anyone looking for space, versatility, and a rural lifestyle in East Texas.

Key facts

• Pond
• Barn
• Built in shelving

Tags

• LARGE OPEN LIVING AREA
• FIREPLACE
• BUILT IN SHELVING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• POND
• BARN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $127k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $127k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#168 in TX, #4,434 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Waskom ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #387 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $878 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.54%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,793
• List price: $127,000
• Delta: -9.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,925
• Equity at exit: $18,936

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $37,010
• Equity at exit: $10,981

Cash invested: $35,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75692

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$666
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $627/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $976

Max offer price $127,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $473	-5% $437	+0% $401	+5% $365	+10% $329
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $343	+0% $401	+5% $460	+10% $518
Rate	-1.0pp $465	-0.5pp $433	base $401	+0.5pp $368	+1.0pp $335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,750
• Closing costs: $3,810
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $127,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,000 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,000 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,000 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,000 Active 156 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $127,000 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $127,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $127,000 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $127,000 Active 148 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $127,000 Active 147 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $127,000 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $127,000 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $127,000 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $127,000 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    price $127,000 747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (747 chars)

    Nestled on a peaceful, tree-shaded property, this 3-bedroom, 3-bath home at 410 Lake Road in Waskom, Texas offers space, privacy, and endless potential. The home features a large open living area with a fireplace, built-in shelving, and plenty of natural light, providing a comfortable layout ready for your personal touch. Outside, the property truly shines with a pond, barn, storage building, and an additional external building, making it ideal for hobbies, animals, equipment, or extra workspace. Surrounded by mature trees and open land, this property offers a quiet country setting while still being conveniently located near town and I-20. A great opportunity for anyone looking for space, versatility, and a rural lifestyle in East Texas.

18. 2026-04-01
    price $123,000 747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (747 chars)

    Nestled on a peaceful, tree-shaded property, this 3-bedroom, 3-bath home at 410 Lake Road in Waskom, Texas offers space, privacy, and endless potential. The home features a large open living area with a fireplace, built-in shelving, and plenty of natural light, providing a comfortable layout ready for your personal touch. Outside, the property truly shines with a pond, barn, storage building, and an additional external building, making it ideal for hobbies, animals, equipment, or extra workspace. Surrounded by mature trees and open land, this property offers a quiet country setting while still being conveniently located near town and I-20. A great opportunity for anyone looking for space, versatility, and a rural lifestyle in East Texas.

19. 2026-01-10
    listed $130,000 Active 747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (747 chars)

    Nestled on a peaceful, tree-shaded property, this 3-bedroom, 3-bath home at 410 Lake Road in Waskom, Texas offers space, privacy, and endless potential. The home features a large open living area with a fireplace, built-in shelving, and plenty of natural light, providing a comfortable layout ready for your personal touch. Outside, the property truly shines with a pond, barn, storage building, and an additional external building, making it ideal for hobbies, animals, equipment, or extra workspace. Surrounded by mature trees and open land, this property offers a quiet country setting while still being conveniently located near town and I-20. A great opportunity for anyone looking for space, versatility, and a rural lifestyle in East Texas.

20. 2022-02-08
    soldstatus
21. 2022-01-25
    soldstatus
22. 2020-10-01
    soldstatus
23. 2020-08-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $627 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,697/yr (+$141/mo · 270.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,114
• − Property taxes: −$627
• − Insurance: −$635
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − Depreciation: −$3,695
• Taxable income: $2,887
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$693
• After-tax cash flow: $4,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waskom ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844670
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,184
• Composite: 34.82/100
• National rank: #5103
• State rank: #387 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waskom

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #4434

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,255

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,691 people
• By 2030: 69,317 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 69,973 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 70,090 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 70,607 · +2.8%
• By 2100: 67,546 · -1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.6) · D 24.4% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.6 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.51%
• Current HPI: 144.1058
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $127,000 LAAR
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $123,000 LAAR
• 2026-01-10 Listed $130,000 LAAR
• 2022-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $627 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.