11425 Highway 142 · Covington, GA 30014

$238,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1972 0.34 ac lot $193/sqft · 13% below area Est $275k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors, this home is in decent condition and needs some TLC. Make a good offer, let's discuss real numbers and get this one closed. Buyers, the seller is willing to provide improvements, but the numbers have to work. So, feel free to tour this solid 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath tradition ranch home. One owner, original hardwood floors, fresh paint throughout and 4 sides brick. The home sits behind Covington Town Center, emerging development .

Key facts

• 4 sides brick
• Fresh paint
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FRESH PAINT
• 4 SIDES BRICK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $500 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $238k).
• Recommended offer: $217k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.8% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#396 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 479 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $238k implies a 1121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,580 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.00%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,950
• List price: $238,000
• Delta: -13.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11118 City Pond Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,184 (-4%)	4mo	$200,000	$169	61
80 Orchard Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+12%)	22mo	$280,000	$203	46
385 Orchard Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+12%)	8mo	$245,000	$178	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-12,672
• Equity at exit: $35,487

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,747
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30014

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 479
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,389 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $481/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,756

Max offer price $238,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $635	-5% $567	+0% $500	+5% $160	+10% $78
Rent	-10% $311	-5% $405	+0% $500	+5% $594	+10% $689
Rate	-1.0pp $620	-0.5pp $560	base $500	+0.5pp $438	+1.0pp $375

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
290 Orchard Ln Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,049	$1.37	16d	1	0.57mi
12301 Town Ctr Blvd Covington, GA	3.0	1.0–2.5	1282	$2,878	$2.24	2d	20	0.95mi
10500 Callaway Dr Covington, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	981	$2,627	$2.68	2d	68	1.16mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,000 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,000 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $238,000 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $238,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,000 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,000 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,000 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-03-14
    listed $238,000 New 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Investors, this home is in decent condition and needs some TLC. Make a good offer, let's discuss real numbers and get this one closed. Buyers, the seller is willing to provide improvements, but the numbers have to work. So, feel free to tour this solid 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath tradition ranch home. One owner, original hardwood floors, fresh paint throughout and 4 sides brick. The home sits behind Covington Town Center, emerging development .

16. 2026-03-14
    listed $238,000 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    Investors, this home is in decent condition and needs some TLC. Make a good offer, let's discuss real numbers and get this one closed. Buyers, the seller is willing to provide improvements, but the numbers have to work. So, feel free to tour this solid 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath tradition ranch home. One owner, original hardwood floors, fresh paint throughout and 4 sides brick. The home sits behind Covington Town Center, emerging development .

17. 1972-01-28
    soldstatus $19,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $481 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,190 · $182/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,709/yr (+$142/mo · 355.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$481
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,293
• − Management: −$2,293
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable income: $2,153
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$517
• After-tax cash flow: $5,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton County
• NCES district ID: 1303930
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,768
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8816
• State rank: #137 of 174 in GA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #19602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Newton County · 104,393 people
• City population: 104,393
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,425
• Household income: $72,254
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1934.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,372 people
• By 2030: 124,234 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 135,550 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 145,309 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 166,843 · +40.9%
• By 2100: 175,800 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.3% · R 42.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+2.4 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.50%
• Current HPI: 270.9868
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1120.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $238,000 FMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $238,000 GAMLS
• 1972-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $19,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $481 · +20.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.