137 Gallant Fox · Castroville, TX 78009

$429,727

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,812 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 222 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 6,011 sqft lot $153/sqft · 36% below area Est $584k · 26% under $46/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step inside this move-in ready home and instantly feel the warmth of a space thoughtfully designed for both comfort and connection. With 4 spacious bedrooms and 3 full baths, there's room for everyone to relax, recharge, and truly feel at home. The open-concept kitchen-complete with granite countertops, a large island made for gathering, a gas cooktop, and sleek stainless-steel appliances. Outdoor features a covered patio overlooking the backyard, the perfect spot to unwind at the end of the day, enjoy weekend barbecues, or simply take in the peaceful surroundings. Don't miss your chance to call this exceptional home yours.

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• GAS COOKTOP
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $430k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $978 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $430k).
• Recommended offer: $378k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.9% in Castroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#212 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 695 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 102 units permitted in Medina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,504/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Medina County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $86k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $378,159 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.76%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $583,862
• List price: $429,727
• Delta: -26.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Poe Pkwy	0.32mi	4/3.5	2,849 (+1%)	9mo	$599,900	$211	74
117 Poe Pkwy	0.26mi	4/3.5	2,774 (-1%)	13mo	$599,990	$216	73
145 Mary Ella Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,613 (-7%)	5mo	$625,000	$239	70
172 Landon Path	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,730 (-3%)	11mo	$519,990	$190	68
936 County Road 375	0.39mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,023 (+8%)	6mo	$768,000	$254	59
280 Sittre Dr	0.46mi	4/3.5	3,003 (+7%)	9mo	$545,000	$181	58
235 Poe	0.40mi	4/3.5	3,101 (+10%)	10mo	$599,900	$193	54
267 Sweet Rose	0.56mi	4/3.5	3,094 (+10%)	6mo	$549,000	$177	50
243 Wisteria Vw	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,560 (-9%)	6mo	$529,900	$207	42
229 Raven Rd	0.62mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,047 (+8%)	10mo	$761,174	$250	41
175 Azalea Aly	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,497 (-11%)	5mo	$519,900	$208	40
223 Azalea Aly	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,497 (-11%)	8mo	$519,900	$208	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-7,492
• Equity at exit: $64,074

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $73,018
• Equity at exit: $37,155

Cash invested: $120,324 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 63 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 31.5 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $533,000 ($197/sqft)
• Median days on market: 131 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78009

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,504 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,209/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$946
• Net cashflow: $978

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,265

Max offer price $429,727

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,222	-5% $1,100	+0% $978	+5% $857	+10% $735
Rent	-10% $623	-5% $801	+0% $978	+5% $1,156	+10% $1,334
Rate	-1.0pp $1,195	-0.5pp $1,088	base $978	+0.5pp $867	+1.0pp $754

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,432
• Closing costs: $12,892
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$5,500	$1.37	10d	1	0.15mi
268 Englewood Ln Castroville, TX	5.0	4.5	4022	$5,500	$1.37	74d	1	0.15mi
270 Lilly Blf Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2958	$3,600	$1.22	184d	1	0.69mi
164 Jereth Xing Castroville, TX	4.0	3.0	2337	$2,575	$1.10	2d	1	0.77mi
319 County Road 386 San Antonio, TX	4.0	4.0	2462	$2,700	$1.10	45d	1	1.00mi
246 Kildeer Crk San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2638	$2,050	$0.78	7d	1	1.43mi
169 Sage Sparrow San Antonio, TX	5.0	2.5	2539	$2,150	$0.85	112d	1	1.47mi
162 Owl Burrow San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2223	$2,100	$0.94	10d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail $46/mo · $552/yr

• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $429,727 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $429,727 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $429,727 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $429,727 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $429,727 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   statusdays on market $429,727 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $429,727 Price Change 215 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $429,727 Price Change 214 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $429,727 Price Change 213 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $429,727 Price Change 212 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $429,727 Price Change 211 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $429,727 Price Change 210 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $429,727 Price Change 209 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $429,727 Price Change 208 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $429,727 Price Change 207 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $429,727 Price Change 206 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    pricestatus $429,727 Price Change 205 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $479,727 Active 205 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $479,727 Active 204 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $479,727 Active 203 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $479,727 Active 202 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $479,727 Active 201 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $479,727 Active 200 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $479,727 Active 199 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $479,727 Active 198 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $479,727 Active 197 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $479,727 Active 196 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $479,727 Active 195 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $479,727 Active 194 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $479,727 Active 193 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $479,727 Active 192 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $479,727 Active 191 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $479,727 Active 190 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $479,727 Active 189 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $479,727 Active 188 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $479,727 Active 187 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $479,727 Active 186 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $479,727 Active 185 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $479,727 Active 184 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $479,727 Active 183 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $479,727 Active 182 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $479,727 Active 181 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $479,727 Active 180 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    statusdays on market $479,727 Active 178 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $479,727 Back on Market 177 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $479,727 Back on Market 176 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $479,727 Back on Market 175 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $479,727 Back on Market 174 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $479,727 Back on Market 173 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $479,727 Back on Market 172 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,209 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,864 · $655/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,655/yr (+$555/mo · 550.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,071
• − Property taxes: −$1,209
• − Insurance: −$2,149
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,323
• − Management: −$4,323
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$12,501
• Taxable income: $4,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,179
• After-tax cash flow: $10,562/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,060–$42,180 screening

This move-in ready home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, and landscaping. The home is ready for a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates to the kitchen and smart home devices to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior brick and landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Improves kitchen aesthetics and functionality. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances home's modern appeal and convenience for potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Potranco El D+ TX #833/4,322 Nat'l #12,398/41,679 Middle Medina Valley Loma Alta Middle B TX #226/1,662 Nat'l #2,304/14,009 High Medina Valley H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Castroville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #5267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Medina · 54,332 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,494
• Household income: $102,724
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Medina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,332 people
• By 2030: 57,250 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 62,563 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 67,386 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 79,538 · +46.4%
• By 2100: 84,624 · +55.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 37% Two or more races 29% Black 4% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 3%
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Medina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.8) · D 28.2% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -42.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.8 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+39.2 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.81%
• Current HPI: 212.1813
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $516,215 LERA
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-05-16 Listed $516,215 LERA

Property tax history

+160.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,209 · +232.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.