422 Mckinney Ave · Odessa, TX 79763

$127,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,226 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 175 Days on market

Built 1950 7,013 sqft lot $104/sqft · 82% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED! Cute 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a big back yard. Don't miss out - call today!

Key facts

• 7,013 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 174 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $572 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $882 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.21%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,990
• List price: $127,500
• Delta: 82.17%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1100 N Washington Ave	0.63mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,233 (+1%)	19mo	$165,000	$134	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $15,820
• Equity at exit: $19,011

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $60,951
• Equity at exit: $11,024

Cash invested: $35,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79763

• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,929 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,763/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,205

Max offer price $127,500

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $644	-5% $608	+0% $572	+5% $536	+10% $499
Rent	-10% $419	-5% $495	+0% $572	+5% $648	+10% $724
Rate	-1.0pp $636	-0.5pp $604	base $572	+0.5pp $539	+1.0pp $505

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,875
• Closing costs: $3,825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
715 N Kelly Ave Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1170	$2,000	$1.71	22d	1	0.36mi
1322 N Lincoln Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1218	$2,200	$1.81	44d	1	0.87mi
1322 N Lincoln Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	1218	$2,100	$1.72	22d	1	0.87mi
200 Santa Rita Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$2,400	$1.67	44d	1	0.88mi
1604 N Sam Houston Ave Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	1142	$2,000	$1.75	44d	1	0.98mi
2404 W 9th St Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	744	$1,600	$2.15	22d	1	1.00mi
1315 N Jackson Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,500	$1.23	14d	1	1.05mi
1501 N Texas Ave Unit A Odessa, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,450	$1.57	14d	1	1.06mi
1318 Harless Ave Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,600	$1.33	22d	1	1.23mi
1322 Harless Ave Unit 1 Odessa, TX	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,700	$1.42	44d	1	1.24mi
1012 Adams Ave Unit C2BBUILDING C Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,750	$1.64	44d	1	1.24mi
1012 Adams Ave Unit C1BBUILDING C Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1066	$1,800	$1.69	44d	1	1.24mi
1015 Milburn Ave Unit A2CBUILDING A Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	22d	1	1.28mi
1015 Milburn Ave Unit A1DBuilding A Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	14d	1	1.28mi
2439 W 15th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,500	$1.28	14d	1	1.28mi
1115 Milburn Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	895	$1,800	$2.01	44d	1	1.29mi
1115 Milburn Ave Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	895	$1,800	$2.01	22d	1	1.29mi
1220 Adams Ave Unit 4 Odessa, TX	4.0	1.0	1063	$1,750	$1.65	44d	1	1.31mi
1220 Adams Ave Unit 3 Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	44d	1	1.31mi
1215 Milburn Ave Unit J1TBUILDING J Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	44d	1	1.32mi
1215 Milburn Ave Unit J2VBUILDING J Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,450	$1.62	44d	1	1.32mi
1219 Milburn Ave Unit K2YBUILDING K Odessa, TX	3.0	1.0	895	$1,500	$1.68	44d	1	1.33mi
2 Star Cir Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,200	$1.60	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $127,500 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $127,500 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $127,500 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $127,500 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $127,500 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $127,500 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $127,500 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $127,500 Active 166 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $127,500 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $127,500 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $127,500 Active 162 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $127,500 Active 161 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $127,500 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    status Active 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Cute 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a big back yard. Don't miss out - call today!

18. 2026-04-07
    historical 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Cute 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a big back yard. Don't miss out - call today!

19. 2026-03-31
    status Active 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Cute 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a big back yard. Don't miss out - call today!

20. 2026-03-23
    historical 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Cute 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a big back yard. Don't miss out - call today!

21. 2026-02-17
    price $129,900 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Cute 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a big back yard. Don't miss out - call today!

22. 2026-01-10
    price $134,900 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Cute 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a big back yard. Don't miss out - call today!

23. 2025-12-08
    listed $144,900 Active 92-char remark

    Show marketing remark (92 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED! Cute 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a big back yard. Don't miss out - call today!

24. 2024-04-22
    soldstatus
25. 2024-04-16
    soldstatus Closed 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Great starter or investment home! Tired of renting? Call your favorite realtor and come see this one before it's gone!

26. 2024-03-14
    status Pending 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Great starter or investment home! Tired of renting? Call your favorite realtor and come see this one before it's gone!

27. 2024-01-31
    status Active 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Great starter or investment home! Tired of renting? Call your favorite realtor and come see this one before it's gone!

28. 2024-01-24
    listed $180,000 Active 118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (118 chars)

    Great starter or investment home! Tired of renting? Call your favorite realtor and come see this one before it's gone!

29. 2022-07-18
    soldstatus
30. 2022-07-15
    soldstatus Closed
31. 2022-06-09
    listed $95,000 Active
32. 2010-01-25
    soldstatus
33. 2004-06-22
    soldstatus
34. 2004-03-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,763 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,763 · $230/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,142
• − Property taxes: −$2,763
• − Insurance: −$638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,852
• − Management: −$1,852
• − Depreciation: −$3,709
• Taxable income: $5,189
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,245
• After-tax cash flow: $5,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,174
• Household income: $56,877
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 842.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 24% White 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 60%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.81%
• Current HPI: 254.9773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+36.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2026-04-07 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2026-03-23 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $129,900 ODMLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $134,900 ODMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $144,900 ODMLS
• 2024-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-16 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2024-03-14 Pending — ODMLS
• 2024-01-31 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2024-01-24 Listed $180,000 ODMLS
• 2022-07-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-15 Sold (MLS) — ODMLS
• 2022-06-09 Listed $95,000 ODMLS
• 2010-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,763 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.