512 River Park Rd · Waco, TX 76657

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1977 7,492 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 512 River Park Rd in McGregor, a permanently affixed single-wide manufactured home located in desirable Midway ISD. This property offers a great opportunity for a buyer looking to add their own style and personal touches while already benefiting from several important updates completed within the last four years. The home features a covered front porch, two-car carport, and a shop with electricity that provides excellent space for storage, hobbies, or projects. A brand-new water heater was installed in April 2026 for added peace of mind. Sitting on a manageable . 172-acre lot with convenient access to Waco, Hewitt, and surrounding areas, this property combines affordability, func

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Manageable lot
• Convenient access

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• TWO-CAR CARPORT
• SHOP WITH ELECTRICITY
• MANAGEABLE LOT
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (covered, 2 spaces)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); Attached; Built in 1977
• Construction: Year built 1977
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre; Subdivision: Clemmons; Directions: From US 84, take the exit toward Speegleville Old Lorena Rd. Turn onto Old Lorena Rd, continue toward River Park Rd. Turn onto River Park Rd, and the property will be on your right.

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 (approx. 10 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One level; Other interior features; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 2

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (1.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (1.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Bosque El (math 75% / reading 76%, grade A, #73 of 4,322 statewide, top 2%, 595 students, 13% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 60% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Midway ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,433 (1.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-14,642
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,380
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76657

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,324 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-05-31
    listed $140,000 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,271
• − Management: −$1,271
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$840
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$202
• After-tax cash flow: $1,561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midway ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830640
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,076
• Composite: 52.32/100
• National rank: #1593
• State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• City population: 125,319
• Population (ZIP): 12,770

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.14%
• Current HPI: 222.0905
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $140,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2021): $260 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.