4651 Minnesota Ave · St. Louis, MO 63111

$30,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,647 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1893 6,229 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fantastic 3 bed, 2 bath home with spacious rooms and great location. This brick bungalow has approx 1647sf. There are 2 full baths on the main level and a large dormer room upstairs. This is a nice home that needs a little TLC. This property is being sold as-is, property is lender-owned and U. S. Bank National Association is making no representations or warranties. The property must be listed for a minimum of 8 days after the first day that the property has been entered into the MLS. listed on 6/08/2026, offers can be accepted on 6/18/2026.

Key facts

• 6,229 sq ft lot
• Built 1893
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,647 (public records)

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Single-phase electric service
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-and-one-half story; Frame construction
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total, including two main-level bedrooms and one upper-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both located on the main and upper levels)
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Full basement with cellar; partially finished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $717 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 35.0% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Monroe Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 158 students, 98% FRL); Gateway Middle (math 0% / reading 8%, grade F, #389 of 391 statewide, top 100%, 506 students, 99% FRL); Roosevelt High (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #517 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 460 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price; built in 1893 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1893 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 34.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.48%
• DSCR: 5.56
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,523
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4636 S Compton Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-9%)	2mo	$180,000	$120	77
4540 Nebraska Ave	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (+4%)	2mo	$129,900	$76	75
3025 Mount Pleasant St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,462 (-11%)	1mo	$130,000	$89	73
5412 Idaho Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,650 (+0%)	2mo	$179,900	$109	70
4648 S Compton Ave	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,502 (-9%)	3mo	$275,000	$183	68
919 Bates St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,632 (-1%)	2mo	$109,999	$67	64
4116 Virginia Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,613 (-2%)	1mo	$235,000	$146	61
4631 Oregon Ave	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,874 (+14%)	8mo	$164,900	$88	55
4240 Nebraska Ave	0.54mi	3/—	1,476 (-10%)	6mo	$35,000	$24	52
4224 Grace Ave	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,498 (-9%)	6mo	$115,900	$77	40
3616 Osceola St	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-15%)	5mo	$199,900	$143	35
617 Bellerive Blvd	0.68mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,890 (+15%)	6mo	$299,900	$159	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.91×
• Total profit: $41,236
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.48×
• Total profit: $96,424
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63111

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,351/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $717

Break-even live

Break-even rent $358

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $813	-5% $726	+0% $717	+5% $709	+10% $700
Rent	-10% $617	-5% $667	+0% $717	+5% $767	+10% $817
Rate	-1.0pp $732	-0.5pp $725	base $717	+0.5pp $710	+1.0pp $702

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3243 Delor St Unit 3243 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	23d	1	0.24mi
4450 Pennsylvania Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,250	$0.83	0d	1	0.25mi
4657 Idaho Ave Unit 4659 St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1668	$1,295	$0.78	25d	1	0.27mi
3324 Liberty St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$950	$0.86	17d	1	0.28mi
4637 Louisiana Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1104	$1,175	$1.06	13d	1	0.40mi
4716 Louisiana Ave Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1200	$995	$0.83	45d	1	0.40mi
4250 Michigan Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	2184	$1,200	$0.55	45d	1	0.47mi
4312 Oregon Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	2032	$2,000	$0.98	0d	1	0.48mi
5028 Louisiana Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	45d	1	0.49mi
3635 Marceline Ter Unit 2ND St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,275	$1.02	45d	1	0.60mi
4145 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,520	$0.92	45d	1	0.62mi
4135 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	2104	$1,600	$0.76	45d	1	0.64mi
4217 S Grand Blvd Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,400	$1.12	5d	1	0.64mi
4127 Minnesota Ave Unit 2F St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	0.64mi
4127 Minnesota Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1155	$1,200	$1.04	45d	1	0.64mi
4130 Minnesota Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1234	$975	$0.79	16d	1	0.65mi
4126 Minnesota Ave Unit 2f St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,028	$0.89	25d	1	0.65mi
3637 Meramec St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1632	$1,925	$1.18	18d	1	0.73mi
712 Dover Pl Unit 1FL St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	45d	1	0.81mi
712 Dover Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$900	$0.82	45d	1	0.81mi
736 Dover Pl Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	0.83mi
4222 S 38th St Unit 4222 St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,400	$0.76	21d	1	0.83mi
4222 S 38th St St. Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,400	$0.76	0d	1	0.83mi
711 Wilmington Ave Unit NA St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1051	$1,300	$1.24	45d	1	0.85mi
4005 S Grand Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1323	$1,150	$0.87	17d	1	0.91mi
3914 Michigan Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1376	$1,150	$0.84	45d	1	0.91mi
3146 Keokuk St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1528	$1,500	$0.98	25d	1	0.94mi
4053 Giles Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1082	$995	$0.92	12d	1	0.95mi
3131 Keokuk St #3131 Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	16d	1	0.96mi
3641 Wilmington Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1175	$1,050	$0.89	45d	1	1.02mi
3428 Dunnica Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1050	$995	$0.95	45d	1	1.03mi
3668a Wilmington Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1212	$1,295	$1.07	16d	1	1.07mi
3668 Wilmington Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1214	$1,350	$1.11	45d	1	1.08mi
4000 Schiller Pl Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.5	1448	$1,600	$1.10	0d	1	1.22mi
6436 Idaho Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1050	$995	$0.95	45d	1	1.22mi
3540 Michigan Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1758	$1,800	$1.02	3d	1	1.36mi
3534 Nebraska Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	45d	1	1.39mi
6800 Virginia Ave Unit 1 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,475	$0.98	19d	1	1.40mi
6730 Vermont Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,600	$1.04	16d	1	1.40mi
3506 S Compton Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	12d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $30,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $30,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 546-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $30,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,351 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,351 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$1,351
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $8,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,088
• After-tax cash flow: $6,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,851
• Household income: $47,039
• Rent vs Own: 61.6% rent · 38.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1364.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 41% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.80%
• Current HPI: 169.4644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-71.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $30,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $106,500 Public Records
• 2002-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,351 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.