1319 Case Knife Rd · Pulaski, VA 24301

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,049 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Built 1938 2.00 ac lot Est $147k · 35% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property offers a classic design ready for your personal touch. Take advantage of all the possibilities. Lots of character waiting on its future family.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1938
• Listed 73 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 5.5% in Pulaski — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#297 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Pulaski County Public School District (rural): math 48% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #86 of 131 in VA (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Critzer Elementary (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 402 students, 80% FRL); Pulaski County Middle (math 38% / reading 60%, grade C-, #238 of 342 statewide, top 71%, 807 students, 77% FRL); Pulaski County Senior High (math 63% / reading 70%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,246 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 47% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 114 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pulaski County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.18%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,860
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Fayette St	0.05mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,036 (-1%)	12mo	$145,000	$140	80
1762 Caseknife Road Rd	0.40mi	2/1.0	1,078 (+3%)	15mo	$20,000	$19	64
127 State	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-5%)	1mo	$190,000	$190	60
127 State Aly	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (-5%)	1mo	$199,000	$199	60
1014 Melborn St	0.25mi	2/1.0	896 (-15%)	16mo	$125,000	$140	51
143 Lake St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,119 (+7%)	7mo	$151,000	$135	50
729 Valley Rd	0.54mi	2/1.0	933 (-11%)	15mo	$30,000	$32	44
126 Pinnacle St	0.34mi	2/1.0	897 (-14%)	23mo	$148,000	$165	41
225 Altoona Rd	0.72mi	2/1.0	895 (-15%)	14mo	$163,000	$182	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $10,237
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $41,813
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24301

• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $323/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $715

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 1st St NE Pulaski, VA	1.0	1.0–1.5	696	$1,225	$1.76	44d	4	1.05mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-12
   price $95,000
3. 2026-01-22
   listed $99,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$456/yr (+$38/mo · 140.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$323
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,465
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$831
• After-tax cash flow: $4,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103150
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $44,912
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2537
• State rank: #86 of 131 in VA

Livability — Pulaski

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #10639

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pulaski, VA
• Population (ZIP): 13,370

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,949 people
• By 2030: 31,812 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 29,224 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 26,691 · -19.0%
• By 2075: 21,312 · -35.3%
• By 2100: 15,697 · -52.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.7) · D 27.3% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -44.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.7 2020: R+41.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+24.8 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.98%
• Current HPI: 144.6556
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Pending — NRVMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $95,000 NRVMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $99,000 NRVMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $323 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.