461 Round Ridge Rd · Pineville, KY 40977

$45,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 263 Days on market

Built 1973 0.90 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 1 bathroom, laundry room, gazebo, city water available, RECC electric available, PVA records state .896 of an acre, 3 bay garage or use as a workshop. Beautiful mountain views. Kitchen appliances convey with the property. Home needs some TLC but priced accordingly.

Key facts

• 3 bay garage
• Laundry room
• Gazebo

Tags

• LAUNDRY ROOM
• GAZEBO
• CITY WATER AVAILABLE
• RECC ELECTRIC AVAILABLE
• 3 BAY GARAGE
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $601 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#195 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bell County (rural): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #91 of 165 in KY (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $598 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.24%
• DSCR: 3.55
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 57.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $34,221
• Equity at exit: $10,157

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.51×
• Total profit: $82,057
• Equity at exit: $10,075

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40977

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $239/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $601

Break-even live

Break-even rent $348

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 253 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 252 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 251 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $45,000 Active 248 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 247 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 246 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 245 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 244 DOM
16. 2026-02-10
    status Active 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bathroom, laundry room, gazebo, city water available, RECC electric available, PVA records state .896 of an acre, 3 bay garage or use as a workshop. Beautiful mountain views. Kitchen appliances convey with the property. Home needs some TLC but priced accordingly.

17. 2026-01-16
    status Pending 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bathroom, laundry room, gazebo, city water available, RECC electric available, PVA records state .896 of an acre, 3 bay garage or use as a workshop. Beautiful mountain views. Kitchen appliances convey with the property. Home needs some TLC but priced accordingly.

18. 2025-10-01
    status Active 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bathroom, laundry room, gazebo, city water available, RECC electric available, PVA records state .896 of an acre, 3 bay garage or use as a workshop. Beautiful mountain views. Kitchen appliances convey with the property. Home needs some TLC but priced accordingly.

19. 2025-09-18
    historical Contingent 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bathroom, laundry room, gazebo, city water available, RECC electric available, PVA records state .896 of an acre, 3 bay garage or use as a workshop. Beautiful mountain views. Kitchen appliances convey with the property. Home needs some TLC but priced accordingly.

20. 2025-09-03
    listed $45,000 Active 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bathroom, laundry room, gazebo, city water available, RECC electric available, PVA records state .896 of an acre, 3 bay garage or use as a workshop. Beautiful mountain views. Kitchen appliances convey with the property. Home needs some TLC but priced accordingly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $239 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $387 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$148/yr (+$12/mo · 62.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$239
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,064
• − Management: −$1,064
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $6,879
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,651
• After-tax cash flow: $5,561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bell County
• NCES district ID: 2100390
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $27,032
• Composite: 26.86/100
• National rank: #7102
• State rank: #91 of 165 in KY

Livability — Pineville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #9690

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,218

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.33%
• Current HPI: 68.6113
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-16 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-01 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-18 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $45,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+32.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $239 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.