4450 SW 169th Lane Rd · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$300,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,660 sqft · Land · 78 Days on market

Built 2026 10,019 sqft lot $181/sqft · 545% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning brand-new 2026 construction single-story ranch home offers 1,660 sq ft of bright, open-concept living space with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in the highly desirable Marion Oaks community of Ocala. The gourmet kitchen features a large island with seating, flowing seamlessly into the spacious dining and living areas, creating the perfect setting for both everyday family life and effortless entertaining. A private master suite includes a generous walk-in closet and ensuite bath, while the thoughtful split-bedroom layout provides three additional spacious bedrooms and a second full bath for maximum privacy and flexibility. Additional highlights include a convenient laundry room, attached 2-car garage, energy-efficient new-construction features throughout, and beautiful neutral finishes that are move-in ready. Enjoy the resort-style amenities of Marion Oaks, including a community center with fitness room, sports courts (tennis, pickleball, basketball, volleyball), playground, splash pad, walking trails, and more, all with no HOA fees. Located just minutes from I-75, major shopping, dining, and medical facilities, this exceptional home is perfect for families or investors seeking modern comfort in a peaceful, tree-lined setting.

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Private master suite
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATH
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $300k implies a 1718% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,192 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.44%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,519
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: 544.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-61,340
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-86,058
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,092 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $664/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,220

Max offer price $282,161

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $-16	+0% $-101	+5% $-186	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-184	+0% $-101	+5% $-18	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $50	-0.5pp $-25	base $-101	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4535 SW 172nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,150	$1.15	14d	1	0.13mi
4513 SW 170th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,950	$1.10	22d	1	0.13mi
17000 SW 41st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1640	$2,000	$1.22	14d	1	0.22mi
4473 SW 168th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$2,000	$1.11	14d	1	0.24mi
17191 SW 40th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	14d	1	0.28mi
267 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,799	$1.14	14d	1	0.42mi
393 Marion Oaks Golf Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	14d	1	0.60mi
550 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,850	$1.17	14d	1	0.61mi
566 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,100	$1.17	14d	1	0.71mi
333 Marion Oaks Golf Way Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	14d	1	0.97mi
3540 SW 163rd Place Rd Unit 2 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,600	$1.32	22d	1	1.04mi
16094 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	1.06mi
16090 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	1.08mi
3022 SW 168th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,800	$1.22	14d	1	1.14mi
3087 SW 172nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	14d	1	1.18mi
17029 SW 30th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,745	$1.33	14d	1	1.25mi
16690 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,725	$1.07	22d	1	1.26mi
16619 SW 31st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	14d	1	1.26mi
16170 SW 33rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,550	$1.29	14d	1	1.30mi
16090 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1799	$1,950	$1.08	14d	1	1.31mi
16100 SW 35th Court Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	14d	1	1.33mi
15944 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,850	$1.40	22d	1	1.35mi
15962 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	14d	1	1.38mi
4605 SW 158th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,695	$0.99	22d	1	1.43mi
16054 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	1.43mi
16210 SW 59th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	14d	1	1.45mi
16292 SW 30th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	1.45mi
16910 SW 27th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,550	$1.37	22d	1	1.47mi
15885 SW 35th Court Rd Unit 1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,550	$1.29	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-10
   listed $300,000 Active 1256-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1256 chars)

   This stunning brand-new 2026 construction single-story ranch home offers 1,660 sq ft of bright, open-concept living space with 4 bedrooms and 2 full baths in the highly desirable Marion Oaks community of Ocala. The gourmet kitchen features a large island with seating, flowing seamlessly into the spacious dining and living areas, creating the perfect setting for both everyday family life and effortless entertaining. A private master suite includes a generous walk-in closet and ensuite bath, while the thoughtful split-bedroom layout provides three additional spacious bedrooms and a second full bath for maximum privacy and flexibility. Additional highlights include a convenient laundry room, attached 2-car garage, energy-efficient new-construction features throughout, and beautiful neutral finishes that are move-in ready. Enjoy the resort-style amenities of Marion Oaks, including a community center with fitness room, sports courts (tennis, pickleball, basketball, volleyball), playground, splash pad, walking trails, and more, all with no HOA fees. Located just minutes from I-75, major shopping, dining, and medical facilities, this exceptional home is perfect for families or investors seeking modern comfort in a peaceful, tree-lined setting.

2. 2004-12-22
   soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $664 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,826/yr (+$152/mo · 274.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,103
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$664
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,008
• − Management: −$2,008
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,610
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,586
• After-tax cash flow: $375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1718.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $664 · -10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.