1321 Garfield Ave · St. Joseph, MO 64503

$29,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1881 4,791 sqft lot ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Good solid 3 bdrm- Need little TLC- Off street parking

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Formal entry
• Brick fireplace

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FORMAL ENTRY
• ORIGINAL STAIRCASE
• ARCHED DOORWAYS
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inside city limits; Lot about 0.11 acres; Living area reported as 1,200 (source: public records); Not in a flood plain; Directions: South on Belt Hwy to Pear. West on Pear — Pear turns into Garfield. Continue to property.
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; 2-story floor plan; Faces south
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Approximately 101+ years old
• Exterior features: Partial wood fencing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (two located on the second floor, one on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Formal dining area; Entry; Partial basement; Wood-burning fireplace with heat circulator (1)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $500 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($896 rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 26.4% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1881 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $29,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1881 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.71%
• DSCR: 4.19
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2824 S 17th St	0.21mi	3/1.0	914 (+2%)	8mo	$168,000	$184	79
2403 S 16th St	0.32mi	3/1.0	934 (+4%)	8mo	$154,000	$165	70
2340 S 13th St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (+3%)	8mo	$134,900	$146	69
2502 S 15th St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	826 (-8%)	2mo	$56,000	$68	68
2419 S 10th St	0.31mi	3/1.0	950 (+6%)	9mo	$147,000	$155	67
2510 S 19th St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	863 (-4%)	6mo	$42,000	$49	64
1409 Pacific St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (-0%)	6mo	$112,067	$125	61
2301 Atchison St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	914 (+2%)	2mo	$144,900	$159	61
1501 Pacific St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+4%)	2mo	$79,900	$85	59
2220 Sycamore Ct	0.71mi	3/1.0	900 (0%)	8mo	$119,900	$133	58
2820 S 24th St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	844 (-6%)	10mo	$125,000	$148	45
3815 E Ayrlawn Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	984 (+9%)	10mo	$139,900	$142	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $27,032
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 75.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.72×
• Total profit: $64,625
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64503

• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $896 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $457/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $517	-5% $509	+0% $500	+5% $492	+10% $483
Rent	-10% $430	-5% $465	+0% $500	+5% $536	+10% $571
Rate	-1.0pp $515	-0.5pp $508	base $500	+0.5pp $493	+1.0pp $485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2219 S 10th St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$900	$1.12	45d	1	0.48mi
1300 S 11th St Apt 22 St Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	866	$998	$1.15	45d	1	1.05mi
1106 Olive St Saint Joseph, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$725	$1.04	45d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $29,900 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   remarks 520-char remark
3. 2026-06-09
   listed $29,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $457 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $457 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,749
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$457
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$860
• − Management: −$860
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $5,878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,411
• After-tax cash flow: $4,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• City population: 44,382
• Population (ZIP): 11,921

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -128.03%
• Current HPI: 185.3921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-32.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $29,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-02-03 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-03 Listed $44,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $457 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.