179 Dunn Drive Plan · Uhland, TX 78640

$99,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 316 Days on market

Manufactured home Excellent condition $66/sqft · 38% below area Est $160k · 38% under ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.3

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new Champion model home available! This beautiful home features an open floor plan with a kitchen island. The dining area is perfect for entertaining! All kitchen appliances are included. Utility room has washer and dryer connections. Primary bathroom has a walk-in shower and dual vanities, and a large walk-in closet. Come make this your brand new home! Apply today!!

Key facts

• Dual vanities
• Walk-in shower
• Kitchen island

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• DUAL VANITIES
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.8% in Uhland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 577 students, 71% FRL); D J Red Simon Middle (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 733 students, 78% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2701 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 316 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,995 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 316 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.54%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $160,000
• List price: $99,995
• Delta: -37.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Spotbill Ct	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,575 (+4%)	0mo	$217,249	$138	71
128 Spotbill Ct	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,676 (+11%)	1mo	$208,499	$124	60
111 Spotbill Ct	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,676 (+11%)	1mo	$247,999	$148	60
644 Whoopers Loop	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+13%)	1mo	$209,499	$123	58
134 Pink Footed Pass	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,692 (+12%)	1mo	$227,249	$134	58
215 Orange Flame Blvd	1.09mi	4/2.0	1,572 (+4%)	1mo	$241,220	$153	57
145 Speckled Belly Bnd	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,676 (+11%)	0mo	$241,999	$144	56
142 Pink Footed Pass	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-10%)	1mo	$207,999	$154	55
231 Orange Flame Blvd	1.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-5%)	1mo	$234,220	$163	50
390 Ebbsfleet Dr	1.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-5%)	1mo	$235,214	$164	50
154 Pink Footed Pass	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,213 (-20%)	1mo	$196,999	$162	48
218 Salkeld Dr	1.16mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+19%)	1mo	$322,490	$180	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,808
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $22,939
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $27,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $149,998 ($95/sqft)
• Median days on market: 143 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +11.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2701
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,393 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $99,995

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $478	-5% $444	+0% $409	+5% $375	+10% $340
Rent	-10% $299	-5% $354	+0% $409	+5% $464	+10% $519
Rate	-1.0pp $460	-0.5pp $435	base $409	+0.5pp $383	+1.0pp $357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,999
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1525	$1,329	$0.87	10d	1	0.03mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	184d	1	0.44mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	164d	1	0.44mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	164d	1	0.46mi
142 Pink Footed Pass Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,675	$1.19	29d	1	0.49mi
142 Pink Footed Pass Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,675	$1.19	10d	1	0.49mi
433 Whoopers Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,599	$1.08	29d	1	0.53mi
433 Whoopers Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,599	$1.08	33d	1	0.53mi
785 Whoopers Loop Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,698	$1.05	55d	1	0.54mi
785 Whoopers Loop Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$1,698	$1.05	74d	1	0.54mi
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	125d	1	0.54mi
599 Arnold Loop Unit B Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,600	$1.46	37d	1	0.98mi
787 Arnold Loop , TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,300	$1.25	0d	1	1.00mi
787 Arnold Loop , TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,300	$1.25	3d	1	1.00mi
300 Wilhem Way Uhland, TX	3.0	2.5	1886	$2,300	$1.22	10d	1	1.01mi
177 Orange Flame Blvd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$2,000	$1.35	10d	1	1.13mi
224 Schuenemann Way Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,650	$1.12	3d	1	1.14mi
190 Celosia Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1486	$1,700	$1.14	10d	1	1.15mi
222 Arnold Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,673	$1.10	112d	1	1.20mi
456 Sandringham Loop Kyle, TX	5.0	2.5	1892	$2,250	$1.19	123d	1	1.22mi
408 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,695	$1.11	134d	1	1.28mi
133 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,800	$1.17	74d	1	1.30mi
191 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$1,899	$0.92	184d	1	1.34mi
259 Levi Lndg Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,895	$1.22	164d	1	1.36mi
235 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2034	$1,990	$0.98	69d	1	1.37mi
178 Levi Lndg Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,800	$1.38	69d	1	1.40mi
127 Levi Lndg Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2013	$2,200	$1.09	158d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $99,995 Active 316 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $99,995 Active 315 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $99,995 Active 314 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $99,995 Active 313 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $99,995 Active 312 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $99,995 Active 310 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $99,995 Active 309 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $99,995 Active 308 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $99,995 Active 307 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $99,995 Active 306 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $99,995 Active 305 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $99,995 Active 304 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $99,995 Active 303 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $99,995 Active 302 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $99,995 Active 301 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    price $99,995 Active 300 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $104,995 Active 300 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $104,995 Active 299 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $104,995 Active 298 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $104,995 Active 297 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $104,995 Active 296 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $104,995 Active 295 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $104,995 Active 294 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $104,995 Active 293 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $104,995 Active 292 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $104,995 Active 291 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $104,995 Active 290 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $104,995 Active 289 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $104,995 Active 288 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $104,995 Active 287 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $104,995 Active 286 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $104,995 Active 285 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $104,995 Active 284 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $104,995 Active 283 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $104,995 Active 282 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $104,995 Active 281 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $104,995 Active 280 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $104,995 Active 279 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $104,995 Active 278 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $104,995 Active 277 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $104,995 Active 276 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $104,995 Active 275 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $104,995 Active 274 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $104,995 Active 272 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $104,995 Active 271 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $104,995 Active 270 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $104,995 Active 269 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $104,995 Active 268 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $104,995 Active 267 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $104,995 Active 266 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,715
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,337
• − Management: −$1,337
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$847
• After-tax cash flow: $4,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new Champion model home is move-in ready with an open floor plan, modern kitchen, and good curb appeal. It's a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hemphill El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle D J Red Simon Middle F TX #1,466/1,662 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Lehman H S F TX #1,234/1,632 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Uhland, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

---

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $104,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-27 Listed $109,995 Zillow