4330 Leisure Lakes Dr · Chipley, FL 32428

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,389 sqft · Manufactured public records · 362 Days on market

Built 1998 1.59 ac lot $94/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Great opportunity in Leisure Lakes, Chipley, FL! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home at 4330 Leisure Lakes Dr is priced competitively for investors or those seeking affordable Florida living, featuring a motivated seller open to offers. Located in peaceful Washington County with easy I-10 access to Panama City (~1hr) and Tallahassee (~1.5hr), it's surrounded by nature near Falling Waters State Park (waterfalls) and Florida Caverns State Park (caves). With strong rental potential for vacationers or long-term tenants and low-cost living in a quiet community, this move-in-ready property won't last - contact me today for details!" The seller is motivated!

Key facts

• Move-in-ready
• Easy i-10 access
• Quiet community

Tags

• EASY I-10 ACCESS
• MOVE-IN-READY
• QUIET COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.1% in Chipley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Washington (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #45 of 73 in FL (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 784 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 362 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $130k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 362 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.66%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,220
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -58.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-14,004
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,174
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32428

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 784
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,201 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,233/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,061

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $184	-5% $148	+0% $111	+5% $74	+10% $37
Rent	-10% $16	-5% $63	+0% $111	+5% $158	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $144	base $111	+0.5pp $77	+1.0pp $43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 362 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 361 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 360 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 359 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 357 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 356 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 353 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 352 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 351 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 350 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,900 Active 347 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 346 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 345 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 344 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 343 DOM
16. 2025-10-10
    price $129,900 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    "Great opportunity in Leisure Lakes, Chipley, FL! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home at 4330 Leisure Lakes Dr is priced competitively for investors or those seeking affordable Florida living, featuring a motivated seller open to offers. Located in peaceful Washington County with easy I-10 access to Panama City (~1hr) and Tallahassee (~1.5hr), it's surrounded by nature near Falling Waters State Park (waterfalls) and Florida Caverns State Park (caves). With strong rental potential for vacationers or long-term tenants and low-cost living in a quiet community, this move-in-ready property won't last - contact me today for details!" The seller is motivated!

17. 2025-08-11
    price $139,900 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    "Great opportunity in Leisure Lakes, Chipley, FL! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home at 4330 Leisure Lakes Dr is priced competitively for investors or those seeking affordable Florida living, featuring a motivated seller open to offers. Located in peaceful Washington County with easy I-10 access to Panama City (~1hr) and Tallahassee (~1.5hr), it's surrounded by nature near Falling Waters State Park (waterfalls) and Florida Caverns State Park (caves). With strong rental potential for vacationers or long-term tenants and low-cost living in a quiet community, this move-in-ready property won't last - contact me today for details!" The seller is motivated!

18. 2025-06-21
    listed $145,000 Active 669-char remark

    Show marketing remark (669 chars)

    "Great opportunity in Leisure Lakes, Chipley, FL! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home at 4330 Leisure Lakes Dr is priced competitively for investors or those seeking affordable Florida living, featuring a motivated seller open to offers. Located in peaceful Washington County with easy I-10 access to Panama City (~1hr) and Tallahassee (~1.5hr), it's surrounded by nature near Falling Waters State Park (waterfalls) and Florida Caverns State Park (caves). With strong rental potential for vacationers or long-term tenants and low-cost living in a quiet community, this move-in-ready property won't last - contact me today for details!" The seller is motivated!

19. 2021-03-05
    soldstatus $85,000 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Crystal-clear spring fed 160 acer lake. Fixer upper. Save Lots of money! Homes selling for as much as $500,000 in this subdivision. Needs flooring. New ac. New roof. Maned gated entry. Community pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, tennis court and basketball court. Great for fishing! Paved roads all the way to HWY 77 and Interstate 10. Only 20 minutes to Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport (ECP). 40 Minutes to Panama City Beach! Don't miss out on this great opportunity!

20. 2020-11-14
    listed $84,999 479-char remark

    Show marketing remark (479 chars)

    Crystal-clear spring fed 160 acer lake. Fixer upper. Save Lots of money! Homes selling for as much as $500,000 in this subdivision. Needs flooring. New ac. New roof. Maned gated entry. Community pool, clubhouse, boat ramp, tennis court and basketball court. Great for fishing! Paved roads all the way to HWY 77 and Interstate 10. Only 20 minutes to Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport (ECP). 40 Minutes to Panama City Beach! Don't miss out on this great opportunity!

21. 2020-11-13
    historical
22. 2020-06-01
    listed $85,000
23. 2005-10-21
    soldstatus $59,000
24. 2003-08-12
    soldstatus $63,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,233
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,153
• − Management: −$1,153
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$199
• After-tax cash flow: $1,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington
• NCES district ID: 1202010
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,948
• Composite: 41.12/100
• National rank: #3561
• State rank: #45 of 73 in FL

Livability — Chipley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,015

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,087 people
• By 2030: 23,600 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 22,643 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,524 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 18,432 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,298 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 13% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 17.0% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+57.1 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+47.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.96%
• Current HPI: 247.8492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+104.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-21 Listed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-05 Sold (MLS) $85,000 CPARMLS
• 2020-11-14 Listed $84,999 CPARMLS
• 2020-11-13 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2020-06-01 Listed $85,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,233 · +14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.