344 Northway Park Unit 4 Rd · Machesney Park, IL 61115

$134,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Condo public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1971 $250/mo HOA · 15% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing River Views and Investment Potential! This townhouse style 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath condo offers a rare opportunity in a desirable Machesney Park location. Situated in a 6-unit building, this property can be rented, making it an excellent option for investors or owner-occupants alike. Enjoy stunning river views and there is a private fenced area out the sliding glass doors. Vinyl Plank flooring in the living room. Kitchen Features abundant cabinet and counter space and appliances are included. New carpet has been installed upstairs, and the finished basement area offers additional living space for a family room, office, or hobby space. Dedicated parking adds everyday convenience. As an a

Key facts

• Private fenced area
• River views
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• RIVER VIEWS
• PRIVATE FENCED AREA
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FINISHED BASEMENT AREA
• DEDICATED PARKING
• BRAND-NEW A/C UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $250 monthly fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential townhouse (condominium)
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Gas water heater; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.9% in Machesney Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#244 in IL, #4,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Marquette Elem School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,054 of 2,056 statewide, top 54%, 289 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $135k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $132,876 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.71%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-12,245
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,199
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61115

• Home prices YoY: -34.6%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,672 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,912/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,485

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1028 Minns Dr Unit 1028-D Machesney Park, IL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,850	$1.51	21d	1	1.00mi
1051 Minns Dr Unit 1051-3 Machesney Park, IL	2.0	2.0	1208	$1,700	$1.41	13d	1	1.02mi
7705 Randy Rd Machesney Park, IL	3.0	1.0	760	$1,250	$1.64	13d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,900 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $134,900 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,912 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,487 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$575/yr (+$48/mo · 30.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,912
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,606
• − Management: −$1,606
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$50
• After-tax cash flow: $1,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Machesney Park

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #4425

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Machesney Park, IL
• City population: 22,424
• Population (ZIP): 22,424

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.28%
• Current HPI: 272.5522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+145.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $134,900 NWIAR
• 2010-01-11 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-21 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-01 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,912 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.