Burnet Plan · Forney, TX 75126

$271,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · SingleFamily · 75 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Burnet offers a thoughtfully designed layout that blends open-concept living with functional space. A covered front porch opens to a spacious great room with direct access to the rear covered patio-perfect for seamless indoor-outdoor entertaining. The gourmet kitchen features an optional large center island with breakfast bar seating, a walk-in pantry, and convenient access to the dining area, making it ideal for both formal meals and casual gatherings. The private primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bath with dual-sink vanity, a soaking tub, walk-in shower, and linen storage. Two large secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, while a centrally located utility room adds everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Spacious great room
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• REAR COVERED PATIO
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $271,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $280,744.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $272k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $229,157 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.98%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,744
• List price: $271,990
• Delta: -3.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1705 Guswood Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+2%)	2mo	$299,960	$195	87
2244 Walden Pond Blvd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,537 (+2%)	5mo	$289,960	$189	86
1904 Flaxen Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-4%)	1mo	$220,999	$152	84
2218 Walden Pond Blvd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+6%)	6mo	$260,824	$163	82
1413 Grove Pond Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,461 (-3%)	3mo	$217,399	$149	82
1415 Grove Pond Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-4%)	3mo	$215,499	$149	81
1703 Sandy Pond	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+4%)	2mo	$280,090	$178	78
1919 Flaxen Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+10%)	1mo	$243,999	$147	76
2208 Heaton St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,449 (-4%)	3mo	$245,000	$169	67
1430 Everett Gardens Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-3%)	4mo	$240,000	$164	61
1410 Fairfield Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,695 (+12%)	4mo	$260,000	$153	47
2035 Ballyoak Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,729 (+14%)	4mo	$308,900	$179	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,313
• Equity at exit: $41,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-74,670
• Equity at exit: $24,274

Cash invested: $78,608 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,292 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$351 /mo · $4,211/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,456

Max offer price $261,959

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,186
• Closing costs: $8,422
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1108 Redcoat Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,250	$1.25	4d	1	0.21mi
1412 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,500	$1.46	18d	1	0.22mi
534 Tuscany Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$2,500	$1.21	43d	1	0.29mi
1450 Whaley Dr Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	922	$2,532	$2.75	1d	20	0.38mi
1012 Barkers Pond Ave Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$2,295	$1.34	2d	1	0.46mi
2207 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,100	$1.48	43d	1	0.49mi
1105 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,842	$1.87	1d	33	0.50mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	7d	1	0.52mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	16d	1	0.52mi
2217 Perrymead Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1423	$2,360	$1.66	4d	1	0.57mi
2225 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1909	$2,150	$1.13	43d	1	0.58mi
2127 Pecan Ridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2113	$2,100	$0.99	43d	1	0.59mi
1100 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,819	$2.04	1d	29	0.63mi
1205 Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,437	$2.55	43d	1	0.64mi
1750 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	43d	1	0.65mi
1200 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$1,670	$1.97	1d	30	0.66mi
1759 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,050	$1.19	24d	1	0.67mi
1430 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1465	$1,950	$1.33	12d	1	0.70mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	1d	1	0.76mi
1462 Everett Gardens Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,195	$1.18	24d	1	0.76mi
2023 Avondown Rd Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,296	$1.40	4d	1	0.76mi
10900 Reeder Ln Forney, TX	3.0	1.5	1186	$3,200	$2.70	22d	1	0.80mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,200	$1.25	22d	1	0.81mi
1405 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$3,920	$4.19	1d	1	0.81mi
2121 Juniper Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,249	$1.16	2d	1	0.82mi
2201 Woodberry Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,050	$1.11	43d	1	0.83mi
236 Pennridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,295	$1.23	24d	1	0.88mi
2421 Eldor Way Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,195	$1.31	24d	1	0.91mi
2106 Bluebell Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,950	$1.27	5d	1	0.93mi
2029 Cone Flower Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,816	$1.13	7d	1	0.94mi
108 Antler Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,449	$1.09	24d	1	0.96mi
236 Archer Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$2,300	$1.14	18d	1	0.99mi
1017 Somerset Cir Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,375	$1.09	7d	1	1.00mi
2026 Gardenia Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,315	$1.07	43d	1	1.00mi
2027 Fair Crest Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2108	$1,975	$0.94	43d	1	1.01mi
4254 Calla Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1983	$2,400	$1.21	43d	1	1.01mi
120 Garner Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2214	$2,500	$1.13	43d	1	1.02mi
1448 Kingswell Ln Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2208	$2,950	$1.34	24d	1	1.03mi
4432 Thalia Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,100	$1.16	43d	1	1.05mi
2214 Sumac Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2055	$2,070	$1.01	43d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $271,990 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $271,990 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $271,990 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $271,990 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $271,990 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $271,990 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $271,990 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $271,990 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $271,990 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $271,990 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $271,990 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $271,990 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $271,990 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $271,990 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $271,990 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    The Burnet offers a thoughtfully designed layout that blends open-concept living with functional space. A covered front porch opens to a spacious great room with direct access to the rear covered patio-perfect for seamless indoor-outdoor entertaining. The gourmet kitchen features an optional large center island with breakfast bar seating, a walk-in pantry, and convenient access to the dining area, making it ideal for both formal meals and casual gatherings. The private primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bath with dual-sink vanity, a soaking tub, walk-in shower, and linen storage. Two large secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, while a centrally located utility room adds everyday convenience.

16. 2026-04-04
    listed $268,990 Active 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    The Burnet offers a thoughtfully designed layout that blends open-concept living with functional space. A covered front porch opens to a spacious great room with direct access to the rear covered patio-perfect for seamless indoor-outdoor entertaining. The gourmet kitchen features an optional large center island with breakfast bar seating, a walk-in pantry, and convenient access to the dining area, making it ideal for both formal meals and casual gatherings. The private primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bath with dual-sink vanity, a soaking tub, walk-in shower, and linen storage. Two large secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, while a centrally located utility room adds everyday convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,726
• − Property taxes: −$4,211
• − Insurance: −$1,404
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,200
• − Management: −$2,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,167
• Taxable loss: −$6,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,538
• After-tax cash flow: $-20/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is ready for minor cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-04 Listed $268,990 Zillow