1252 W 11th St · Erie, PA 16502

$94,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1920 5,445 sqft lot Est $109k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this freshly updated single-family home in North West Erie! It offers spacious bedrooms, a separate living room and dining room, and is super close to all the amenities you need. Plus, there's a fenced-in backyard. Attractively priced, this place could be a fantastic addition to any investor's rental portfolio or a wonderful home for someone looking for their next move.

Key facts

• 5,445 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R-1
• HOA & community: Sidewalks in community

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential property; Fixer condition; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof; Built year not provided; Foundation details not provided
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed patio/porch; Porch; Patio; Storage; Shed(s); Fenced yard; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Decorative fireplace; Full unfinished basement; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $94,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.51%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
715 Japan St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,176 (+3%)	2mo	$172,000	$146	82
1306 W 10 St	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,288 (+13%)	7mo	$159,000	$123	67
809 Liberty St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,130 (-1%)	2mo	$70,000	$62	66
521 Raspberry St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+8%)	2mo	$100,000	$81	64
1139 W 5th St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+8%)	5mo	$35,000	$28	61
906 W 18th St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,104 (-4%)	7mo	$68,177	$62	54
626 Seminole Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,096 (-4%)	3mo	$280,500	$256	54
1156 W 5th St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,244 (+9%)	3mo	$133,600	$107	52
1117 W 21st St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,246 (+9%)	1mo	$118,900	$95	52
1034 W 5th St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,022 (-11%)	0mo	$65,000	$64	52
1011 W 6th St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+12%)	7mo	$165,000	$129	51
2019 Woodrow St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,232 (+8%)	8mo	$75,000	$61	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $880
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $21,754
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16502

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,177/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $910

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $309	-5% $282	+0% $255	+5% $228	+10% $201
Rent	-10% $158	-5% $206	+0% $255	+5% $304	+10% $352
Rate	-1.0pp $303	-0.5pp $279	base $255	+0.5pp $230	+1.0pp $205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1164 W 7th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,600	$1.28	44d	1	0.30mi
1257 W 6th St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	44d	1	0.34mi
305 Cascade St Unit 305 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	44d	1	0.67mi
1610 Poplar St Unit Downstairs Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$875	$0.73	44d	1	0.74mi
1837 W 9th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,600	$1.10	44d	1	0.85mi
440 W 9th St Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	44d	1	0.98mi
923 Chestnut St Unit 2 Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	1.06mi
2619 Liberty St Apt 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	45d	1	1.19mi
1022 W 30th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	44d	1	1.27mi
811 W 30th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	44d	1	1.37mi
504 W 29th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $94,900 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   remarks 382-char remark
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on marketlisting id $94,900 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $87,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $87,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $87,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    remarks 304-char remark
11. 2026-06-02
    listed $87,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,177 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,177 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$2,177
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $1,694
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$407
• After-tax cash flow: $2,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,995
• Household income: $38,566
• Rent vs Own: 60.6% rent · 39.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1044.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.73%
• Current HPI: 211.4408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+625.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $87,000 GEBOR
• 2024-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $52,800 Public Records
• 2018-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $52,800 Public Records
• 2010-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1976-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,177 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.