5050 Churchill Ave · Las Cruces, NM 88011

$212,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1974 0.53 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Hacienda Acres subdivision, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick home offers 1,518 square feet of living space on a spacious 0.53-acre lot with beautiful Organ Mountain views. Built in the 1970s, the home features timeless brick construction, a durable metal roof, and a detached two-car garage. The oversized lot provides plenty space for outdoor living, RV parking, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, the home offers a functional floor plan and solid construction, providing a great foundation for updates and customization. Whether you're searching for a renovation opportunity, investment property, or a primary residence with room to add your personal touch, this Hacienda Acres property presents strong potential and space to grow.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Brick construction
• Oversized lot

Tags

• HACIENDA ACRES SUBDIVISION
• ORGAN MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• BRICK CONSTRUCTION
• METAL ROOF
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• OVERSIZED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $212k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($632/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sonoma Elementary (748 students, 100% FRL); Camino Real Middle (965 students, 100% FRL); Organ Mountain High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #56 of 110 statewide, top 50%, 1,980 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,824 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.06%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-35,652
• Equity at exit: $31,610

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-44,814
• Equity at exit: $18,330

Cash invested: $59,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88011

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,112
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,256/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,652

Max offer price $212,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $113	+0% $53	+5% $-7	+10% $-67
Rent	-10% $-83	-5% $-15	+0% $53	+5% $120	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $159	-0.5pp $107	base $53	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,000
• Closing costs: $6,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $212,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $212,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $212,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $212,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $212,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $212,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $212,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $212,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $212,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $212,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $212,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $212,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $212,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $212,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $212,000 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    price $222,000 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Located in the Hacienda Acres subdivision, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick home offers 1,518 square feet of living space on a spacious 0.53-acre lot with beautiful Organ Mountain views. Built in the 1970s, the home features timeless brick construction, a durable metal roof, and a detached two-car garage. The oversized lot provides plenty space for outdoor living, RV parking, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, the home offers a functional floor plan and solid construction, providing a great foundation for updates and customization. Whether you're searching for a renovation opportunity, investment property, or a primary residence with room to add your personal touch, this Hacienda Acres property presents strong potential and space to grow.

17. 2026-03-02
    listed $230,000 Active 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Located in the Hacienda Acres subdivision, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick home offers 1,518 square feet of living space on a spacious 0.53-acre lot with beautiful Organ Mountain views. Built in the 1970s, the home features timeless brick construction, a durable metal roof, and a detached two-car garage. The oversized lot provides plenty space for outdoor living, RV parking, gardening, or future improvements. Inside, the home offers a functional floor plan and solid construction, providing a great foundation for updates and customization. Whether you're searching for a renovation opportunity, investment property, or a primary residence with room to add your personal touch, this Hacienda Acres property presents strong potential and space to grow.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,256 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,696 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: +$440/yr (+$37/mo · 35.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,875
• − Property taxes: −$1,256
• − Insurance: −$1,060
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − Depreciation: −$6,167
• Taxable loss: −$3,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$729
• After-tax cash flow: $1,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,064
• Household income: $75,875
• Rent vs Own: 40.2% rent · 59.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1398.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 18% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.94%
• Current HPI: 196.0554
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.28%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $222,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-02 Listed $230,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID