5028 Maple St · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1968 10,019 sqft lot $276/sqft · 39% above area Est $114k · 39% over ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Charming and affordable Birch Bay getaway! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath single wide manufactured home offers 576 sq ft of easy living on a spacious 10,019 sq ft lot with a peaceful creek running through the property. Enjoy your own private, park-like setting complete with a quaint bridge over the creek-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Just a 2-minute walk to Cottonwood Beach, with easy access to miles of shoreline, wooded trails, and outdoor recreation. The home features a front deck ideal for seating and BBA's, plus plenty of parking for guests, boats, or RV's. A fantastic setup for summer fun, weekend retreats, or investment potential. Sold as-is. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a

Key facts

• Front deck
• Peaceful creek
• Plenty of parking

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• PEACEFUL CREEK
• PRIVATE PARK-LIKE SETTING
• FRONT DECK
• PLENTY OF PARKING
• INVESTMENT POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.23 acres; Public square footage reported: 576
• Financial info: Cash-only listing
• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open/uncovered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water (Birch Bay water sewer); Public sewer (Birch Bay water sewer); PSE power
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story
• Construction: Manufactured house (single wide)
• Exterior features: Dead-end street; Paved; Secluded lot; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Washer and dryer included; Microwave; Refrigerator; Forced air heating
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric energy source

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 33% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,615 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.68%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $114,163
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: 39.27%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5028 Maple St	0.00mi	2/1.0	576 (0%)	0mo	$159,000	$276	100
8080 Harborview Rd Unit F91	0.52mi	1/1.0 (-1)	560 (-3%)	9mo	$75,000	$134	58
4751 Birch Bay Lynden #129	0.74mi	1/1.0 (-1)	570 (-1%)	1mo	$240,000	$421	58
8080 Harborview Rd Unit M159	0.63mi	2/1.0	528 (-8%)	1mo	$20,000	$38	55
7954 Birch Bay Dr #22	0.75mi	2/1.0	576 (0%)	24mo	$122,500	$213	45
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #99	0.73mi	1/1.0 (-1)	540 (-6%)	10mo	$193,500	$358	42
8080 Harborview Rd	0.61mi	2/1.0	530 (-8%)	22mo	$15,000	$28	39
8080 Harborview Rd Unit M176	0.70mi	1/1.0 (-1)	610 (+6%)	22mo	$160,000	$262	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $116,739
• Equity at exit: $143,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.20×
• Total profit: $320,567
• Equity at exit: $308,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,520/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $189,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,558 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$38/yr (+$3/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,520
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $3,257
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$782
• After-tax cash flow: $4,865/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $159,312 Public Records
• 2026-06-09 Sold (MLS) $159,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $159,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $189,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,520 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.