40 Gordon Ave · Dayton, OH 45402

$139,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1907 3,829 sqft lot $107/sqft · 235% above area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This classic 4-bedroom(Possible 5th), 1-bath two-story home offers space, charm, and strong investment potential. Featuring a full basement, a welcoming front porch, and a large backyard, this property is ideal for both seasoned investors and first-time buyers. Inside, you’ll find a traditional living room and dining room layout, with comfortably sized bedrooms throughout. The kitchen and bathroom have seen recent updates, offering a refreshed look while maintaining the home’s character. Located just minutes from the expressway, the home sits in a convenient area with easy access to city amenities. With some updates already completed.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Large backyard
• Dining room layout

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DINING ROOM LAYOUT
• RECENT UPDATES
• EASY ACCESS TO CITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 7.4% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,034/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.79%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $41,787
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: 234.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
352 Edison St	0.58mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (+3%)	12mo	$68,755	$51	53
1540 W 2nd St	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+12%)	8mo	$145,000	$100	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $24,637
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $88,202
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45402

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,034 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,244/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,134

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $790	-5% $751	+0% $711	+5% $672	+10% $632
Rent	-10% $550	-5% $631	+0% $711	+5% $792	+10% $872
Rate	-1.0pp $782	-0.5pp $747	base $711	+0.5pp $675	+1.0pp $638

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
429 Bolander Ave Dayton, OH	4.0	2.5	1468	$1,695	$1.15	44d	1	0.95mi
429 Bolander Ave Unit 431 Dayton, OH	4.0	2.5	1468	$1,695	$1.15	4d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-01-15
    listed $139,900 Active 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    This classic 4-bedroom(Possible 5th), 1-bath two-story home offers space, charm, and strong investment potential. Featuring a full basement, a welcoming front porch, and a large backyard, this property is ideal for both seasoned investors and first-time buyers. Inside, you’ll find a traditional living room and dining room layout, with comfortably sized bedrooms throughout. The kitchen and bathroom have seen recent updates, offering a refreshed look while maintaining the home’s character. Located just minutes from the expressway, the home sits in a convenient area with easy access to city amenities. With some updates already completed.

17. 2025-12-06
    historical
18. 2025-08-07
    price $139,900
19. 2025-07-30
    price $147,900
20. 2025-06-25
    price $149,500
21. 2025-06-10
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$469/yr (+$39/mo · 37.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,244
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,953
• − Management: −$1,953
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $6,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,596
• After-tax cash flow: $6,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 9,407
• Household income: $48,401
• Rent vs Own: 64.1% rent · 35.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 32% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.89%
• Current HPI: 149.7909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.98%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-15 Listed $139,900 Dayton MLS
• 2025-12-06 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $139,900 Dayton MLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $147,900 Dayton MLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $149,500 Dayton MLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $149,900 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,244 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.