1519 Chertsey Cir · Channelview, TX 77530

$195,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1985 3,946 sqft lot $118/sqft · 10% below area Est $217k · 10% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,946 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Sterling Green association; Annual association fee of $279 covering recreation facilities; Community has curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-level entry; Built in 1985
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete road access; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (17x12); Two additional bedrooms on second level (each 12x12)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Three total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($324/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in Channelview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#598 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Channelview ISD (suburban): math 27% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #640 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Viola Cobb El (math 27% / reading 23%); Aguirre J H (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 975 students, 76% FRL); Channelview H S (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,893 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.9%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $195k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,904 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,832
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -10.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1510 Chertsey Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,620 (-2%)	3mo	$235,000	$145	92
1342 Padstow Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+0%)	1mo	$229,000	$138	79
1331 Padstow Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (-0%)	2mo	$214,900	$130	72
5950 Carpenters Hollow Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,607 (-3%)	1mo	$259,900	$162	66
1323 Padstow Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-7%)	5mo	$170,000	$111	63
234 Wentworth Park Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,649 (-0%)	2mo	$249,900	$152	61
14918 Silver Green Dr S	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,860 (+12%)	1mo	$235,000	$126	58
14502 Fargo Woods Cir	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-3%)	4mo	$224,900	$141	57
1322 Littleport Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-8%)	4mo	$245,000	$161	55
1327 Padstow Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,417 (-14%)	1mo	$229,000	$162	55
15110 Peachmeadow Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,417 (-14%)	3mo	$249,900	$176	52
1362 Leadenhall Cir	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,462 (-12%)	5mo	$239,000	$163	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-19,851
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $30,517
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77530

• Rents YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,879 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,967/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,845

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $137	-5% $82	+0% $27	+5% $-28	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-121	-5% $-47	+0% $27	+5% $101	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $77	base $27	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1391 Tenderden Dr Channelview, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,699	$1.16	0d	1	0.21mi
14831 Waterside Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1638	$1,779	$1.09	4d	1	0.29mi
1335 Willersley Ln Channelview, TX	3.0	2.0	1669	$1,775	$1.06	4d	1	0.56mi
1379 Dell Dale St Channelview, TX	4.0	2.0	1444	$1,893	$1.31	7d	1	0.84mi
947 Leadenhall Cir Channelview, TX	3.0	2.5	1620	$1,806	$1.11	0d	1	1.00mi
15255 Ferness Ln Channelview, TX	4.0	2.0	1326	$1,668	$1.26	4d	10	1.01mi
6301 Pale Sage Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$2,429	$2.32	0d	23	1.02mi
644 Majestic Ridge Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,800	$1.67	45d	1	1.04mi
15110 N Castlegory Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,670	$1.55	13d	1	1.05mi
6464 E Sam Houston Pkwy N Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$1,889	$1.72	0d	13	1.11mi
810 Townley St Channelview, TX	3.0	3.5	1713	$1,925	$1.12	45d	1	1.18mi
13726 Rampchester Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1492	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.41mi
6622 Hawthorne Falls Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,866	$1.17	23d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $200,000 Active 404-char remark
16. 2008-03-29
    historical
17. 2007-03-07
    listed $96,500
18. 2000-02-22
    soldstatus
19. 2000-02-01
    soldstatus $79,900
20. 1999-07-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,967 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,967 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,967
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,804
• − Management: −$1,804
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,873
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$689
• After-tax cash flow: $1,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Channelview ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813590
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $52,320
• Composite: 25.18/100
• National rank: #7513
• State rank: #640 of 826 in TX

Livability — Channelview

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #598
• US rank: #11392

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Channelview, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 31,527
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,527
• Household income: $62,195
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 966.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 31% White 16% Black 9% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 37% English-only · Spanish 60% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.05%
• Current HPI: 292.1862
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.85%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+144.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2008-03-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-03-07 Listed $96,500 HARMLS
• 2000-02-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 1999-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,967 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.