18151 Bosley Dr · Shady Hills, FL 34610

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Manufactured public records · 538 Days on market

Built 2000 1.07 ac lot Est $259k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MUST SEE!!! Newly Renovated!! Well Maintained Home. Located in Highlands Meadows. This Home sits on 1.07 acres and Features a Huge workshop with Electric. All Plumbing and Electric have been Updated as well. The Metal roof is only 1yr old. A/C has also been Updated. This home is Zone AG so bring your Horses and other Animals, Don't miss these beautiful views this property offers. Located on a Cul De Sac. Also a Hookup for a RV. Close to Shopping and Restaurants. DO NOT WAIT THIS WILL NOT LAST!!!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Newly renovated home
• Beautiful views

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED HOME
• HUGE WORKSHOP WITH ELECTRIC
• UPDATED PLUMBING AND ELECTRIC
• METAL ROOF
• ZONE AG FOR HORSES AND ANIMALS
• BEAUTIFUL VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property sub type: Manufactured Home; Zoning: AR; Lot size about 1.07 acres (1 to less than 2 acres)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces southeast; Entry level: One
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a double-wide manufactured home structure
• Exterior features: Storage; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.5% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 256 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 538 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $245k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 538 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.55%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,200
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18150 Corpus Christi Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-11%)	15mo	$230,000	$200	60
17834 Corpus Christi Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+15%)	4mo	$278,000	$187	54
17736 Medley Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+12%)	3mo	$285,000	$195	43
17707 Godfrey Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-12%)	18mo	$255,000	$223	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-28,205
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-9,057
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34610

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,665/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,577

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $315	-5% $246	+0% $177	+5% $107	+10% $38
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $66	+0% $177	+5% $287	+10% $398
Rate	-1.0pp $300	-0.5pp $239	base $177	+0.5pp $113	+1.0pp $48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18321 Edgewood Dr Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1633	$2,800	$1.71	25d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   historical
3. 2026-04-25
   price $245,000
4. 2026-02-20
   status Active
5. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-09
   price $255,000
7. 2026-01-09
   price $255,000
8. 2026-01-01
   status Active
9. 2026-01-01
   status Active
10. 2025-12-31
    historical
11. 2025-12-30
    historical
12. 2025-12-12
    price $265,000
13. 2025-12-12
    price $265,000
14. 2025-09-19
    price $275,000
15. 2025-09-19
    price $275,000
16. 2025-08-28
    price $280,000
17. 2025-08-28
    price $280,000
18. 2025-07-17
    listed $290,000 Active
19. 2025-07-16
    price $290,000
20. 2025-03-05
    status Active
21. 2025-03-05
    historical
22. 2025-03-04
    historical
23. 2024-11-04
    listed $300,000 Active
24. 2024-11-04
    listed $300,000 Active
25. 2021-08-03
    soldstatus $100,000
26. 2000-02-29
    soldstatus $33,500
27. 1997-12-12
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,665 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,665 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,665
• − Insurance: −$6,344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$1,635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$392
• After-tax cash flow: $2,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Hills, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,544

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.13%
• Current HPI: 342.8714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+880.0% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $245,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $255,000 HCAR
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — HCAR
• 2026-01-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $265,000 HCAR
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $275,000 HCAR
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $280,000 HCAR
• 2025-07-17 Listed $290,000 HCAR
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-05 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2025-03-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-04 Listed $300,000 HCAR
• 2024-11-04 Listed $300,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2000-02-29 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records
• 1997-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,665 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.