418 Carmelita Cir · El Paso, TX 79907

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1960 3,049 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! Estate property with great flip potential in a unique Lower Valley location. Needs repairs, yet it offers an excellent opportunity to remodel and add value. Conveniently located near the Zaragoza Bridge, Zaragoza Ave, and many main East-side amenities including schools. Perfect for investors or flippers looking for their next project.

Key facts

• East-side amenities
• Zaragoza ave
• Zaragoza bridge

Tags

• LOWER VALLEY LOCATION
• ZARAGOZA BRIDGE
• ZARAGOZA AVE
• EAST-SIDE AMENITIES
• OPPORTUNITY TO REMODEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $544 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Ysleta ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #626 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Capistrano El (math 14% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 460 students, 97% FRL); Ysleta Middle (math 14% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,569 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 779 students, 90% FRL); Ysleta H S (math 43% / reading 37%, grade F, #809 of 1,632 statewide, top 50%, 1,342 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 68% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,250 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.65%
• DSCR: 3.08
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $32,872
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.28×
• Total profit: $101,948
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79907

• Home prices YoY: -9.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,303/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $496

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $573	-5% $558	+0% $544	+5% $530	+10% $516
Rent	-10% $451	-5% $498	+0% $544	+5% $591	+10% $638
Rate	-1.0pp $569	-0.5pp $557	base $544	+0.5pp $531	+1.0pp $518

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9207 Santa Rosalia Ct Unit A El Paso, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	22d	1	0.21mi
9228 San Lorenzo Ave Unit B El Paso, TX	2.0	1.0	980	$1,200	$1.22	15d	1	0.26mi
8715 Independence Dr Unit 7 El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	972	$1,050	$1.08	24d	1	1.05mi
8715 Independence Dr Unit 05 El Paso, TX	2.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	44d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-12-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-02
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-11-11
   listed $50,000 Active
4. 1976-09-01
   soldstatus
5. 1976-05-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,303
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,137
• − Management: −$1,137
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $6,134
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,472
• After-tax cash flow: $5,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ysleta ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846680
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,826
• Composite: 25.65/100
• National rank: #7400
• State rank: #626 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Paso

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #1375

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Paso, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 630,223
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,365
• Household income: $41,617
• Rent vs Own: 40.7% rent · 59.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1390.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 42% White 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 90%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 78%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.34%
• Current HPI: 251.9374
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-10 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Contingent — GEPARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $50,000 GEPARMLS
• 1976-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1976-05-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,303 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.