Atlas Plan · Nocatee, FL 32081

$589,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,129 sqft · SingleFamily · 51 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Cash flow +2.6/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Riverside Homes is excited to announce our selection as a preferred new homebuilder in Nocatee's final neighborhood, Seabrook Village. With the success of new home sales in the Settler's Landing and Crosswater neighborhoods, Riverside Homes is elated to continue building our home designs in Ponte Vedras award winning master-planned community of Nocatee. Seabrook Village is situated in Seabrook, located off an extension of Conservation Trail to the west of the Pioneer Village at Crosswater neighborhood. Seabrook Village will boast approximately 327 homesites in Phase 1 and 207 homesites in Phase 2 and offer an idyllic place for growing families, young professionals, empty-nesters, and retire

Key facts

• Dog park
• New amenity center
• Pool

Tags

• APPROXIMATELY 327 HOMESITES
• APPROXIMATELY 207 HOMESITES
• STEPS FROM SEABROOK PARK
• NEW AMENITY CENTER
• POOL
• DOG PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 60 Recollection Dr, Ponte Vedra, FL 32081; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $589,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Plan home named Atlas; New construction inventory: Plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,129

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (plan home)

🏗️ New construction. The $589,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $768,234.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $590k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-32k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (34.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (42.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (42.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#425 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 652 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($132k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $-4k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $337,826 (42.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.73%
• DSCR: 0.34
• GRM: 19.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $768,234
• List price: $589,900
• Delta: -23.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
321 Reflections Ave	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,396 (+12%)	2mo	$710,000	$296	65
406 Reflections Ave	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,395 (+12%)	1mo	$670,000	$280	62
944 Caiden Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,239 (+5%)	2mo	$629,000	$281	61
377 Reflections Ave	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,395 (+12%)	3mo	$635,000	$265	60
439 Reflections Ave	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,396 (+12%)	3mo	$824,988	$344	60
388 Seamark Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,239 (+5%)	2mo	$650,000	$290	58
385 Reflections Ave	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,400 (+13%)	0mo	$670,000	$279	55
427 Reflections Ave	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,399 (+13%)	0mo	$699,787	$292	53
855 Caiden Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+12%)	0mo	$790,900	$331	50
230 Seamark Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,322 (+9%)	2mo	$667,900	$288	48
345 Seamark Dr	0.63mi	4/3.5	2,398 (+13%)	3mo	$679,900	$284	47
325 Seamark Dr	0.65mi	4/3.5	2,398 (+13%)	2mo	$664,900	$277	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.49% appreciation · 1.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-214,307
• Equity at exit: $204,471

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-346,138
• Equity at exit: $231,392

Cash invested: $215,105 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32081

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 652
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,029
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$960 /mo · $11,524/yr
• Insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$709
• Net cashflow: $-2,640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,720

Max offer price $386,183

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,109	-5% $-2,375	+0% $-2,640	+5% $-2,906	+10% $-3,171
Rent	-10% $-2,907	-5% $-2,774	+0% $-2,640	+5% $-2,507	+10% $-2,373
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,253	-0.5pp $-2,445	base $-2,640	+0.5pp $-2,839	+1.0pp $-3,042

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $192,058
• Closing costs: $23,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10260 Old Dixie Hwy Ponte Vedra, FL	4.0	3.0	2500	$3,099	$1.24	3d	1	1.24mi
48 Pine Shadow Pkwy Ponte Vedra, FL	3.0	2.5	1134	$3,887	$3.43	4d	46	1.42mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $589,900 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $589,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $589,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $589,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $589,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $589,900 Active 45 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $589,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $589,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $589,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $589,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $589,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $589,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $589,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    listed $589,900 Active 1284-char remark
15. 2026-04-28
    listed $596,900 Active 1402-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,539
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,033
• − Property taxes: −$11,524
• − Insurance: −$3,841
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,243
• − Management: −$3,243
• − Depreciation: −$22,349
• Taxable loss: −$46,693
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,206
• After-tax cash flow: $-20,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nocatee

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #7550

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nocatee, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 27,365
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,784
• Household income: $131,624
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Current HPI: 145.8421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.13%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B