1808 Live Oak · Douglas Flat, CA 95251

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1980 5,227 sqft lot Est $239k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is an awesome starter home so that you can own your home rather than rent. Close to Murphys, great school districts. There is 1440 sq. ft. 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, Roof is only 3 years old. Lots of opportunity and possibilities with this listing.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 7 days

Tags

• ROOF IS ONLY 3 YEARS OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($355/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bret Harte Union High (town): math 35% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #429 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Albert A. Michelson Elementary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #496 of 1,571 statewide, top 34%, 213 students, 34% FRL); Avery Middle (math 37% / reading 52%, grade D, #130 of 498 statewide, top 27%, 198 students, 61% FRL); Bret Harte Union High (587 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,917 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,040
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1736 Live Oak Ct	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	6mo	$130,000	$90	91
1825 Live Oak Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	23mo	$239,000	$166	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $97,119
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.80×
• Total profit: $284,365
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95251

• Home prices YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $737/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,332

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $79	+0% $30	+5% $-20	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-24	+0% $30	+5% $84	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $74	base $30	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $737 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,330 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$593/yr (+$49/mo · 80.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$737
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$649
• After-tax cash flow: $1,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bret Harte Union High
• NCES district ID: 0605940
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,974
• Composite: 45.41/100
• National rank: #5708
• State rank: #429 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Douglas Flat

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Douglas Flat, CA
• Population (ZIP): 684

Population outlook (Calaveras County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,163 people
• By 2030: 41,703 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 38,202 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 35,385 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 30,807 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 25,755 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 22% Native American 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calaveras

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.1) · D 34.7% · R 62.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.1 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+23.9 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.34%
• Current HPI: 190.1
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $737 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.