Timms Plan · San Antonio, TX 78221

$199,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 618 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Rent growth +0.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level home features a modern and low-maintenance design. Three bedrooms can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Listed 617 days

🏗️ New construction. The $199,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $261,428.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Southside ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #771 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 369 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 618 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,164 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 618 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,428
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -23.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12103 Precept Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,645 (+10%)	2mo	$235,900	$143	78
11319 Par One	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (+3%)	2mo	$295,000	$191	73
10667 Fannin Way	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,386 (-8%)	4mo	$179,999	$130	56
10636 Fannin Way	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,386 (-8%)	1mo	$169,999	$123	55
10644 Fannin Way	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,386 (-8%)	2mo	$172,999	$125	55
10628 Fannin Way	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,386 (-8%)	1mo	$176,999	$128	55
10651 Fannin Way	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,386 (-8%)	4mo	$169,999	$123	54
10656 Fannin Way	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,386 (-8%)	3mo	$164,999	$119	54
10639 Fannin Way	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,386 (-8%)	6mo	$176,999	$128	52
10632 Fannin Way	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,375 (-8%)	4mo	$163,999	$119	51
10623 Fannin Way	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,386 (-8%)	6mo	$172,699	$125	51
1934 Alcalde Cv	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,386 (-8%)	6mo	$176,999	$128	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.03% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-14,686
• Equity at exit: $103,517

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,931
• Equity at exit: $149,375

Cash invested: $73,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78221

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 369
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,732 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,371
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,921/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,287

Max offer price $197,951

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,357
• Closing costs: $7,843
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1119 Jordan Xing San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,795	$1.41	43d	1	0.21mi
12910 Clubhouse Blvd San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,384	$1.50	1d	27	0.44mi
11426 Four Iron Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1814	$1,695	$0.93	4d	1	0.72mi
934 Cook Bnd San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,445	$0.89	23d	1	0.78mi
12015 Still Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1635	$1,600	$0.98	20d	1	0.81mi
1015 Catalonia Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	4d	1	0.81mi
1011 Catalonia Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,700	$1.16	23d	1	0.82mi
922 Manero Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,850	$0.95	23d	1	0.86mi
12030 Picard Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	3d	1	0.92mi
742 Haas Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$2,100	$1.24	17d	1	0.92mi
718 Albatross Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,650	$1.15	12d	1	0.98mi
10628 Aqueduct Crk San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	43d	1	0.99mi
1343 Art Wall Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,395	$0.97	43d	1	0.99mi
1622 Saenz San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,475	$1.14	21d	1	1.00mi
12055 Links Pkwy San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,625	$1.10	23d	1	1.01mi
1803 Marshall Cross San Antonio, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,425	$1.51	1d	38	1.02mi
710 Titleist Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,680	$0.86	43d	1	1.03mi
11963 Sand Wedge Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.5	1474	$1,575	$1.07	4d	1	1.06mi
13206 Dutra Rd San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1956	$1,700	$0.87	43d	1	1.18mi
13222 Dutra Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,595	$1.26	23d	1	1.20mi
9879 Chavaneaux Lndg San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,700	$1.07	23d	1	1.27mi
2203 Cielo Rio, Lot 102 San Antonio, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1574	$2,845	$1.81	1d	152	1.31mi
1019 Magrum Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,445	$1.11	10d	1	1.32mi
907 Stricker Path San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,500	$1.33	23d	1	1.32mi
1038 Janzen Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,725	$1.53	21d	1	1.34mi
1115 Janzen Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	43d	1	1.37mi
1019 Snedeker Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,449	$1.21	23d	1	1.44mi
13806 S Strange Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,795	$1.08	23d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-02-08
   status Active 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   This new single-level home features a modern and low-maintenance design. Three bedrooms can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

2. 2025-02-07
   historical 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   This new single-level home features a modern and low-maintenance design. Three bedrooms can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

3. 2024-11-17
   price $199,999 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   This new single-level home features a modern and low-maintenance design. Three bedrooms can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

4. 2024-09-21
   status Active 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   This new single-level home features a modern and low-maintenance design. Three bedrooms can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

5. 2024-09-21
   price $202,999 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   This new single-level home features a modern and low-maintenance design. Three bedrooms can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

6. 2024-03-19
   historical 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   This new single-level home features a modern and low-maintenance design. Three bedrooms can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

7. 2024-03-12
   listed $234,999 Active 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   This new single-level home features a modern and low-maintenance design. Three bedrooms can be found off the foyer, leading to an open-concept floorplan that combines the kitchen, living and dining areas. The luxe owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,644
• − Property taxes: −$3,921
• − Insurance: −$1,307
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,662
• − Management: −$1,662
• − Depreciation: −$7,605
• Taxable loss: −$10,023
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,405
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with modern and low-maintenance design. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for further updates to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the flooring in bathrooms — Enhances the overall aesthetic and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in bathrooms — Enhances the overall aesthetic and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southside ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,526
• Composite: 17.68/100
• National rank: #9027
• State rank: #771 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,178
• Household income: $63,811
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1180.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 28% White 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 74%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 54%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.03%
• Current HPI: 251.1635
• Rent YoY: ▼ -7.21%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-17 Price Changed $199,999 Zillow
• 2024-09-21 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-21 Price Changed $202,999 Zillow
• 2024-03-19 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-12 Listed $234,999 Zillow