46 Ullman St · Buffalo, NY 14207

$199,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1928 3,537 sqft lot $104/sqft · at area comps Est $203k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Roof is 3 years old. Windows are 2 years old. Furnace and central a/c is 3 years old. HWT - 2 years old. New electrical box one year ago. New carpet. One year old metal roof on garage. New porch on back within past year. Property being sold in as-in condition. Seller will make no repairs due to inspection or appraisal. Offers reviewed as they come in. Seller reserves the right to set an offer deadline.

Key facts

• 3,537 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1928

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $577 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,214/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 2177% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $200k implies a 441% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $193,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.36%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,280
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -1.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Roesch Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,650 (-14%)	9mo	$190,000	$115	65
386 Esser Ave	0.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,774 (-7%)	10mo	$97,500	$55	60
66 Royal Ave	0.53mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,904 (-1%)	21mo	$110,000	$58	52
5 Copeland Pl	0.68mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,780 (-7%)	7mo	$70,000	$39	46
907 Tonawanda St	0.40mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,639 (-14%)	8mo	$110,000	$67	45
88 Briggs Ave	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (-8%)	12mo	$185,000	$105	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,942
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $114,068
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $482/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $690	-5% $634	+0% $577	+5% $520	+10% $464
Rent	-10% $402	-5% $489	+0% $577	+5% $664	+10% $752
Rate	-1.0pp $678	-0.5pp $628	base $577	+0.5pp $525	+1.0pp $472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
61 Baxter St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2014	$1,400	$0.70	2d	1	0.15mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	2d	1	0.48mi
52 Greeley St Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1804	$1,000	$0.55	24d	1	1.27mi
172 Tremont Ave Kenmore, NY	3.0	1.5	1569	$2,500	$1.59	11d	1	1.45mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 405-char remark

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   Roof is 3 years old. Windows are 2 years old. Furnace and central a/c is 3 years old. HWT - 2 years old. New electrical box one year ago. New carpet. One year old metal roof on garage. New porch on back within past year. Property being sold in as-in condition. Seller will make no repairs due to inspection or appraisal. Offers reviewed as they come in. Seller reserves the right to set an offer deadline.

2. 2026-03-27
   listed $199,999 Active 405-char remark

   Show marketing remark (405 chars)

   Roof is 3 years old. Windows are 2 years old. Furnace and central a/c is 3 years old. HWT - 2 years old. New electrical box one year ago. New carpet. One year old metal roof on garage. New porch on back within past year. Property being sold in as-in condition. Seller will make no repairs due to inspection or appraisal. Offers reviewed as they come in. Seller reserves the right to set an offer deadline.

3. 1993-06-07
   soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $482 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,931 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,449/yr (+$121/mo · 300.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$482
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,126
• − Management: −$2,126
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $3,816
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$916
• After-tax cash flow: $6,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+440.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $199,999 WNYREIS
• 1993-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $482 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.