26812 N 161st St · Rio Verde, AZ 85262

$789,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,813 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1999 1.25 ac lot Est $1044k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Embrace the Sonoran Desert lifestyle in this stunning 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom stucco ranch-style home with a 2-car garage and breathtaking mountain views. Inside, you'll find an open-concept floor plan with soaring ceilings, abundant natural light, and beautiful ceramic tile flooring throughout. The spacious kitchen features warm earth-tone finishes, decorative tile backsplash, ample counter space, and plenty of room for entertaining. Gather with family and friends in the inviting living area, highlighted by a cozy fireplace that adds warmth and charm. The expansive primary suite offers a private retreat with a luxurious jetted tub, generous walk-in closet, and spa-like ambiance. Step outside

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Cozy fireplace
• Jetted tub

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• DECORATIVE TILE BACKSPLASH
• COZY FIREPLACE
• JETTED TUB
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 3 vehicles; 3 garage spaces
• Utilities: Shared well water; Septic (in and connected)
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Foam roof
• Exterior features: Desert landscaping front and back; Private pool with private spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bath in primary bedroom; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $790k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-198/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $787k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $584k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $584k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Rio Verde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#194 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 598 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($178k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $425k; list at $790k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $584,300 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,043,623
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16414 E Pinnacle Vista Dr	0.55mi	4/4.0	3,070 (+9%)	9mo	$1,140,000	$371	52
15724 E Cavedale Dr	0.41mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,396 (-15%)	1mo	$900,000	$376	46
16229 E Blue Sky Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,042 (+8%)	16mo	$1,075,000	$353	37
27819 N 164th St	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,446 (-13%)	4mo	$750,000	$307	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-129,469
• Equity at exit: $117,777

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-115,798
• Equity at exit: $68,296

Cash invested: $221,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85262

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,142
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,932/yr
• Insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,227
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,864

Max offer price $786,984

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $431	-5% $207	+0% $-17	+5% $-240	+10% $-464
Rent	-10% $-478	-5% $-247	+0% $-17	+5% $214	+10% $445
Rate	-1.0pp $381	-0.5pp $184	base $-17	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-429

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $197,475
• Closing costs: $23,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27722 N 164th St Scottsdale, AZ	5.0	4.0	3869	$4,850	$1.25	23d	1	0.69mi
27715 N 164th Pl Unit 1558634P Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	2.5	3498	$6,262	$1.79	0d	1	0.76mi
28301 N 154th St Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	2.5	2818	$4,500	$1.60	44d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $789,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $789,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $789,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $789,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $789,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-03
   listed $789,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,932 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,213 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,281/yr (+$273/mo · 169.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥111°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,247
• − Property taxes: −$1,932
• − Insurance: −$3,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,609
• − Management: −$5,609
• − Depreciation: −$22,979
• Taxable loss: −$14,210
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,410
• After-tax cash flow: $3,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Verde

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #194
• US rank: #19880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,329
• Household income: $177,790
• Rent vs Own: 3.1% rent · 96.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.65%
• Current HPI: 286.3814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+102.5% since first listed

70 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $789,900 ARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Listed $795,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $809,950 ARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $810,950 ARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $815,950 ARMLS
• 2025-04-20 Price Changed $816,950 ARMLS
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $817,950 ARMLS
• 2025-04-06 Price Changed $822,950 ARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Price Changed $823,950 ARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $824,950 ARMLS
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $829,950 ARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Price Changed $831,950 ARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-02-03 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-01-23 Price Changed $836,950 ARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $837,950 ARMLS
• 2024-12-17 Price Changed $862,950 ARMLS
• 2024-12-02 Price Changed $865,450 ARMLS
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $867,950 ARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $869,950 ARMLS
• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $879,950 ARMLS
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $889,950 ARMLS
• 2024-09-13 Price Changed $894,950 ARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $884,950 ARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $889,950 ARMLS
• 2024-07-23 Price Changed $894,500 ARMLS
• 2024-07-11 Price Changed $899,500 ARMLS
• 2024-06-07 Price Changed $919,500 ARMLS
• 2024-06-01 Listed $945,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $969,500 ARMLS
• 2024-05-23 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-05-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-05-18 Price Changed $974,000 ARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Price Changed $975,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-21 Price Changed $985,000 ARMLS
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $995,000 ARMLS
• 2024-03-09 Price Changed $999,000 ARMLS
• 2024-03-04 Price Changed $1,025,000 ARMLS
• 2024-02-12 Price Changed $1,030,000 ARMLS
• 2024-01-13 Price Changed $1,050,000 ARMLS
• 2024-01-02 Price Changed $1,060,000 ARMLS
• 2023-12-14 Price Changed $1,065,000 ARMLS
• 2023-12-06 Price Changed $1,070,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-17 Price Changed $1,075,000 ARMLS
• 2023-11-05 Price Changed $1,080,000 ARMLS
• 2023-10-17 Price Changed $1,095,000 ARMLS
• 2023-09-18 Price Changed $1,145,000 ARMLS
• 2023-07-03 Price Changed $1,150,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-01 Listed $1,195,000 ARMLS
• 2023-05-29 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-03-11 Price Changed $1,250,000 ARMLS
• 2023-02-01 Listed $1,350,000 ARMLS
• 2017-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $424,569 Public Records
• 2017-07-12 Sold (MLS) $424,569 ARMLS
• 2017-06-24 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-06-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2017-06-07 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-06-02 Price Changed $423,000 ARMLS
• 2017-05-04 Listed $445,200 ARMLS
• 2001-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2001-12-04 Sold (MLS) $360,000 ARMLS
• 2001-11-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2001-10-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2001-10-26 Listed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2001-06-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2001-06-06 Listed $365,000 ARMLS
• 2000-12-07 Listed $390,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,932 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.