31750 Machado · Lake Elsinore, CA 92530

$77,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · Manufactured public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1976 $67/sqft · 38% below area Est $123k · 37% under ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Home is on a corner lot with a Huge Backyard !Huntsman Mobile Home Park!Community is for 55+ Amenities Include heated pool, spa , large covered patio area with barbecue , exercise room & social Activites . Open Floor Plan ! Home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms , Laundry room, ceiling fans, Beautiful wood Floors !All appliance included washer and dryer!Property has a private backyard with fruit trees , Orange, Lemon and 2 Shed!Possible financing with my lender. Call Nancy Griffith for information 909-838-1883 listing Realtor

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Huge backyard
• Large covered patio

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• HUGE BACKYARD
• HEATED POOL
• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• FRUIT TREES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Elsinore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#510 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities D, commute F.
• Lake Elsinore Unified (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #210 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,226 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.94%
• DSCR: 4.16
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,151
• List price: $77,900
• Delta: -36.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31750 Machado St #29	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-1%)	16mo	$62,000	$54	84
31750 Machado #15	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+7%)	8mo	$100,000	$80	82
31750 Machado St #81	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-1%)	20mo	$95,000	$82	77
31750 Machado St #18	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-11%)	17mo	$82,000	$79	68
31776 Via Valdez St	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-14%)	17mo	$359,000	$359	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $62,950
• Equity at exit: $11,615

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.20×
• Total profit: $135,249
• Equity at exit: $6,735

Cash invested: $21,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92530

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $406/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $1,289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $601

Max offer price $77,900

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,475
• Closing costs: $2,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
590 Parkview Dr Lake Elsinore, CA	1.0	1.0	944	$1,900	$2.01	24d	1	0.18mi
16465 Joy St Unit 20 Lake Elsinore, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,850	$1.95	18d	1	0.19mi
16460 Joy St Lake Elsinore, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,710	$2.44	2d	1	0.22mi
16523 Joy St Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	24d	1	0.25mi
597 Woodcrest Dr Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5	1600	$2,545	$1.59	2d	1	0.30mi
685 Woodcrest Dr Unit A Lake Elsinore, CA	2.0	2.5	1000	$2,200	$2.20	44d	1	0.30mi
15195 Lincoln St Lake Elsinore, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	832	$2,175	$2.61	2d	1	0.36mi
892 Robin Dr Lake Elsinore, CA	2.0	2.0	1315	$2,450	$1.86	2d	1	0.37mi
16395 Broadway St Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	1.5	750	$2,350	$3.13	44d	1	0.39mi
16510 Lakeshore Dr Lake Elsinore, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,975	$2.32	5d	1	0.52mi
1121 Monroe St Unit NA Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,575	$2.34	15d	1	0.59mi
583 Le Harve Ave Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.0	1174	$2,750	$2.34	44d	1	0.68mi
15120 Ironwood St Lake Elsinore, CA	3.0	2.0	1391	$3,450	$2.48	2d	1	0.72mi
16840 Bell Ave Unit 8 Lake Elsinore, CA	1.0	1.0	765	$1,795	$2.35	44d	1	0.80mi
17441 Ryan Ave Lake Elsinore, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,600	$2.29	24d	1	1.20mi
15120 Grand Ave Lake Elsinore, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$2,285	$2.63	2d	7	1.21mi
15190 Grand Ave Lake Elsinore, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,868	$2.22	2d	6	1.30mi
33111 Jamieson St Lake Elsinore, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,425	$1.43	17d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $77,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $77,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $77,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $77,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-04-17
   price $77,900 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Beautiful Home is on a corner lot with a Huge Backyard !Huntsman Mobile Home Park!Community is for 55+ Amenities Include heated pool, spa , large covered patio area with barbecue , exercise room & social Activites . Open Floor Plan ! Home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms , Laundry room, ceiling fans, Beautiful wood Floors !All appliance included washer and dryer!Property has a private backyard with fruit trees , Orange, Lemon and 2 Shed!Possible financing with my lender. Call Nancy Griffith for information 909-838-1883 listing Realtor

6. 2026-04-06
   price $83,000 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Beautiful Home is on a corner lot with a Huge Backyard !Huntsman Mobile Home Park!Community is for 55+ Amenities Include heated pool, spa , large covered patio area with barbecue , exercise room & social Activites . Open Floor Plan ! Home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms , Laundry room, ceiling fans, Beautiful wood Floors !All appliance included washer and dryer!Property has a private backyard with fruit trees , Orange, Lemon and 2 Shed!Possible financing with my lender. Call Nancy Griffith for information 909-838-1883 listing Realtor

7. 2026-03-16
   listed $78,900 Active 549-char remark

   Show marketing remark (549 chars)

   Beautiful Home is on a corner lot with a Huge Backyard !Huntsman Mobile Home Park!Community is for 55+ Amenities Include heated pool, spa , large covered patio area with barbecue , exercise room & social Activites . Open Floor Plan ! Home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms , Laundry room, ceiling fans, Beautiful wood Floors !All appliance included washer and dryer!Property has a private backyard with fruit trees , Orange, Lemon and 2 Shed!Possible financing with my lender. Call Nancy Griffith for information 909-838-1883 listing Realtor

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $406 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $592 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$186/yr (+$16/mo · 46.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,364
• − Property taxes: −$406
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − Depreciation: −$2,266
• Taxable income: $15,085
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,620
• After-tax cash flow: $11,852/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Elsinore Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600027
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,829
• Composite: 37.01/100
• National rank: #4518
• State rank: #210 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Elsinore

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #510
• US rank: #17250

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Elsinore, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 89,823
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,768
• Household income: $86,862
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1690.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 28% Two or more races 21% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 41% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.66%
• Current HPI: 394.1705
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.76%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $77,900 CRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $83,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $78,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $406 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.