757 Canyon Bnd · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$429,900

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,207 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2021 10,711 sqft lot $134/sqft · 37% below area Est $681k · 37% under $4/mo HOA

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 757 Canyon Bend! Step outside to enjoy a very large lot offering over 10,000 sq ft, mature trees, a stunning covered second floor patio, also a spacious wooden deck on the lower level, perfect for relaxing, hosting gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors with added privacy and modern elegance. This home is beautifully designed inside and out and is located in the highly desired Canyon Lake Forest community. It is close to shopping, dining, schools, and major highways and offers both convenience and beauty. Inside you're to love the lovely wood tile and laminate floors, the kitchen and bathrooms have exquisite tile work and counter tops, and the open layout is perfect for entertaining! Whether you're a seasoned buyer, a first-time buyer this property is full of potential and is ready for your personal touch. Schedule your private showing today and come see all that this home has to offer! You won't be disappointed! Let's make this home yours!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-663 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (27.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,066 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.61%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $681,268
• List price: $429,900
• Delta: -36.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1073 Las Brisas Dr	0.38mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,398 (+6%)	3mo	$800,000	$235	63
619 Caballo Trl	0.41mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,105 (-3%)	13mo	$999,000	$322	60
1010 Laredo	0.40mi	3/3.0	2,765 (-14%)	9mo	$725,000	$262	47
1573 Bella Vis	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,957 (-8%)	15mo	$849,900	$287	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-120,752
• Equity at exit: $64,099

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-193,671
• Equity at exit: $37,170

Cash invested: $120,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax from tax record: −$636 /mo · $7,631/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$641
• Net cashflow: $-663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,891

Max offer price $312,690

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,475
• Closing costs: $12,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
149 Campbell Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	3.0	2708	$4,000	$1.48	43d	1	0.76mi
2488 Waterfront Park Dr Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	3.0	2134	$3,250	$1.52	19d	1	0.83mi
101 Cielo Vis Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	3.0	2112	$2,400	$1.14	14d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,900 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,900 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $429,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $429,900 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $429,900 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $429,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,900 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $450,000 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Welcome to 757 Canyon Bend! Step outside to enjoy a very large lot offering over 10,000 sq ft, mature trees, a stunning covered second floor patio, also a spacious wooden deck on the lower level, perfect for relaxing, hosting gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors with added privacy and modern elegance. This home is beautifully designed inside and out and is located in the highly desired Canyon Lake Forest community. It is close to shopping, dining, schools, and major highways and offers both convenience and beauty. Inside you're to love the lovely wood tile and laminate floors, the kitchen and bathrooms have exquisite tile work and counter tops, and the open layout is perfect for entertaining! Whether you're a seasoned buyer, a first-time buyer this property is full of potential and is ready for your personal touch. Schedule your private showing today and come see all that this home has to offer! You won't be disappointed! Let's make this home yours!

15. 2026-05-05
    price $462,500 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Welcome to 757 Canyon Bend! Step outside to enjoy a very large lot offering over 10,000 sq ft, mature trees, a stunning covered second floor patio, also a spacious wooden deck on the lower level, perfect for relaxing, hosting gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors with added privacy and modern elegance. This home is beautifully designed inside and out and is located in the highly desired Canyon Lake Forest community. It is close to shopping, dining, schools, and major highways and offers both convenience and beauty. Inside you're to love the lovely wood tile and laminate floors, the kitchen and bathrooms have exquisite tile work and counter tops, and the open layout is perfect for entertaining! Whether you're a seasoned buyer, a first-time buyer this property is full of potential and is ready for your personal touch. Schedule your private showing today and come see all that this home has to offer! You won't be disappointed! Let's make this home yours!

16. 2026-04-25
    price $465,000 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Welcome to 757 Canyon Bend! Step outside to enjoy a very large lot offering over 10,000 sq ft, mature trees, a stunning covered second floor patio, also a spacious wooden deck on the lower level, perfect for relaxing, hosting gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors with added privacy and modern elegance. This home is beautifully designed inside and out and is located in the highly desired Canyon Lake Forest community. It is close to shopping, dining, schools, and major highways and offers both convenience and beauty. Inside you're to love the lovely wood tile and laminate floors, the kitchen and bathrooms have exquisite tile work and counter tops, and the open layout is perfect for entertaining! Whether you're a seasoned buyer, a first-time buyer this property is full of potential and is ready for your personal touch. Schedule your private showing today and come see all that this home has to offer! You won't be disappointed! Let's make this home yours!

17. 2026-04-16
    price $467,500 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Welcome to 757 Canyon Bend! Step outside to enjoy a very large lot offering over 10,000 sq ft, mature trees, a stunning covered second floor patio, also a spacious wooden deck on the lower level, perfect for relaxing, hosting gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors with added privacy and modern elegance. This home is beautifully designed inside and out and is located in the highly desired Canyon Lake Forest community. It is close to shopping, dining, schools, and major highways and offers both convenience and beauty. Inside you're to love the lovely wood tile and laminate floors, the kitchen and bathrooms have exquisite tile work and counter tops, and the open layout is perfect for entertaining! Whether you're a seasoned buyer, a first-time buyer this property is full of potential and is ready for your personal touch. Schedule your private showing today and come see all that this home has to offer! You won't be disappointed! Let's make this home yours!

18. 2026-04-09
    price $470,000 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Welcome to 757 Canyon Bend! Step outside to enjoy a very large lot offering over 10,000 sq ft, mature trees, a stunning covered second floor patio, also a spacious wooden deck on the lower level, perfect for relaxing, hosting gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors with added privacy and modern elegance. This home is beautifully designed inside and out and is located in the highly desired Canyon Lake Forest community. It is close to shopping, dining, schools, and major highways and offers both convenience and beauty. Inside you're to love the lovely wood tile and laminate floors, the kitchen and bathrooms have exquisite tile work and counter tops, and the open layout is perfect for entertaining! Whether you're a seasoned buyer, a first-time buyer this property is full of potential and is ready for your personal touch. Schedule your private showing today and come see all that this home has to offer! You won't be disappointed! Let's make this home yours!

19. 2026-03-25
    listed $475,000 Active 970-char remark

    Show marketing remark (970 chars)

    Welcome to 757 Canyon Bend! Step outside to enjoy a very large lot offering over 10,000 sq ft, mature trees, a stunning covered second floor patio, also a spacious wooden deck on the lower level, perfect for relaxing, hosting gatherings, or simply enjoying the outdoors with added privacy and modern elegance. This home is beautifully designed inside and out and is located in the highly desired Canyon Lake Forest community. It is close to shopping, dining, schools, and major highways and offers both convenience and beauty. Inside you're to love the lovely wood tile and laminate floors, the kitchen and bathrooms have exquisite tile work and counter tops, and the open layout is perfect for entertaining! Whether you're a seasoned buyer, a first-time buyer this property is full of potential and is ready for your personal touch. Schedule your private showing today and come see all that this home has to offer! You won't be disappointed! Let's make this home yours!

20. 2025-11-28
    historical
21. 2025-05-28
    listed $599,000 New
22. 2025-05-28
    listed Active
23. 2025-04-25
    historical
24. 2025-04-02
    historical
25. 2025-03-18
    listed $639,900 New
26. 2025-03-12
    historical
27. 2025-01-28
    price $644,900
28. 2024-12-13
    status Back on Market
29. 2024-12-12
    historical
30. 2024-11-14
    listed $649,900 Active
31. 2024-11-12
    price $649,900
32. 2024-09-12
    listed $698,000 New
33. 2018-02-06
    soldstatus Sold
34. 2018-01-19
    status Pending
35. 2018-01-18
    historical
36. 2018-01-06
    listed $15,000 Active
37. 2018-01-06
    listed $15,000 New
38. 2017-04-28
    historical
39. 2017-03-09
    price $45,000
40. 2016-12-08
    status Back on Market
41. 2016-12-06
    historical Active Option
42. 2016-10-14
    listed $15,000 New
43. 1984-05-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,631 · $636/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,867 · $656/mo
• Expected delta: +$236/yr (+$20/mo · 3.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,081
• − Property taxes: −$7,631
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,929
• − Management: −$2,929
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$12,506
• Taxable loss: −$15,666
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,760
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,202/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2900.0% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $450,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $462,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $465,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $467,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $470,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $475,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-05-28 Listed $599,000 LERA
• 2025-05-28 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-25 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-04-02 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listed $639,900 LERA
• 2025-03-12 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $644,900 LERA
• 2024-12-13 Relisted — LERA
• 2024-12-12 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-11-14 Listed $649,900 CTXMLS
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $649,900 LERA
• 2024-09-12 Listed $698,000 LERA
• 2018-02-06 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2018-01-19 Pending — LERA
• 2018-01-18 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2018-01-06 Listed $15,000 CTXMLS
• 2018-01-06 Listed $15,000 LERA
• 2017-04-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2017-03-09 Price Changed $45,000 LERA
• 2016-12-08 Relisted — LERA
• 2016-12-06 Contingent — LERA
• 2016-10-14 Listed $15,000 LERA
• 1984-05-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+28.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $7,631 · -21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.