13356 Shea Cir · Foley, AL 36535

$272,540

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,969 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Sullivan is a stunning single-story floor plan available in Magnolia Pines, located in Foley, Alabama. With sixteen exterior options to choose from, the Sullivan is sure to catch the eye. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 1-car garage floor plan offers 1,417 square feet of living space. It features an inviting foyer that leads passed the bedrooms and into a spacious kitchen filled with natural light. The kitchen is equipped with shaker-style cabinets, stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, granite countertops, a pantry for extra storage, and plenty of counter space for all your cooking needs. The open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining, and living areas together, making it perfect for e

Key facts

• Inviting foyer
• Spacious kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY FLOOR PLAN
• INVITING FOYER
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Whole/full ownership
• HOA & community: No transfer fees; No community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached single garage (1 covered space)
• Utilities: Riviera Utilities; Has heating (electric)
• Home design: New construction; One story
• Construction: Brick, concrete board, vinyl siding and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Approximately 1,440 square feet
• Exterior features: Termite contract; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range
• Flooring: Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Split bedroom plan; No fireplace

🏗️ New construction. The $272,540 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $277,920.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $273k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Foley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Foley Elementary School (math 22% / reading 44%, grade F, #323 of 627 statewide, top 52%, 992 students, 76% FRL); Foley Middle School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 257 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 82% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $230,010 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.60%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13782 Logan Pl	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-2%)	3mo	$272,040	$193	87
13763 Logan Pl	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-2%)	4mo	$271,540	$193	87
13816 Shea Cir	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,417 (-2%)	1mo	$275,000	$194	86
13765 Shea Cir	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-2%)	4mo	$250,000	$177	85
13773 Logan Pl	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+0%)	4mo	$260,000	$180	85
13772 Logan Pl	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+4%)	3mo	$245,000	$163	84
17015 Sugar Loop	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,481 (+3%)	2mo	$250,000	$169	74
16603 Vanilla Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (+5%)	4mo	$192,000	$127	71
13753 Logan Pl	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-11%)	3mo	$250,000	$195	68
13742 Logan Pl	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-11%)	4mo	$269,524	$210	68
16423 Absalom St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,353 (-6%)	2mo	$235,000	$174	66
16377 Mansion St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,330 (-8%)	1mo	$259,900	$195	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-54,318
• Equity at exit: $41,439

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-66,556
• Equity at exit: $24,029

Cash invested: $77,818 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 875
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,457
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$347 /mo · $4,169/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,431

Max offer price $262,934

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $89	-5% $-8	+0% $-104	+5% $-200	+10% $-296
Rent	-10% $-285	-5% $-194	+0% $-104	+5% $-13	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $36	-0.5pp $-33	base $-104	+0.5pp $-176	+1.0pp $-249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,480
• Closing costs: $8,338
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13691 Logan Pl , AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$1,995	$1.41	21d	1	0.15mi
13634 Logan Pl , AL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,895	$1.48	21d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $272,540 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 14 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 13 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $272,540 Active New Construction 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-18
    listed $272,540 Active New Construction

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,568
• − Property taxes: −$4,169
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$8,085
• Taxable loss: −$6,026
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,446
• After-tax cash flow: $204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 15 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Foley, Alabama, is in excellent condition with a good layout and features. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value
• Rental Install smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value ↑
• Rental Install smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Foley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 40,628
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $272,540 BCAR