5591 Newcastle Ct #6021 · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$386,998

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,110 sqft · Townhouse · 1 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This attached home is the largest plan in the collection. A two-car garage sits on the first floor, while upstairs is an open concept living space with sliding doors to the outdoor entertainment area. Also on the top floor are all three bedrooms, including the owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom. Tee off on the 18-hole Gordon Lewis-designed course and relax at the nearly 17,000 sq. ft. clubhouse with on-site dining. Enjoy the vastness of the fitness and spa amenities and resort-style pool area for ultimate relaxation. Bundled social memberships available!

Key facts

• 18 hole golf course
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINMENT AREA
• SPA INSPIRED BATHROOM
• 18 HOLE GOLF COURSE
• CLUBHOUSE WITH ON SITE DINING
• FITNESS AND SPA AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $387k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $387k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,809/mo this rent would consume 93% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $108k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $386,998

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.46%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $41,489
• Equity at exit: $92,522

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $158,334
• Equity at exit: $96,394

Cash invested: $108,359 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,809 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,029
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$484 /mo · $5,805/yr
• Insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,010
• Net cashflow: $1,125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,385

Max offer price $386,998

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,750
• Closing costs: $11,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	23d	1	0.09mi
5538 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$6,295	$2.80	21d	1	0.11mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	21d	1	0.14mi
5114 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2599	$3,195	$1.23	21d	1	0.14mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct #5545 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2400	$9,000	$3.75	23d	1	0.14mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,500	$3.78	23d	1	0.15mi
5120 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2273	$3,500	$1.54	11d	1	0.15mi
5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	11d	1	0.15mi
5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,250	$3.59	11d	1	0.16mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	23d	1	0.17mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,495	$4.14	23d	1	0.17mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3026 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,350	$1.50	21d	1	0.18mi
5674 Melbourne Ct Unit 7721 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$7,295	$3.46	11d	1	0.20mi
5089 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2028	$2,300	$1.13	13d	1	0.21mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	21d	1	0.21mi
5680 Melbourne Ct #7521 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$2,650	$1.26	3d	1	0.21mi
5704 Melbourne Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$3,995	$2.29	23d	1	0.23mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,000	$3.56	21d	1	0.24mi
5428 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$7,895	$3.51	21d	1	0.27mi
5739 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$3,700	$2.16	23d	1	0.29mi
5739 Oakmont Ct #8412 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	23d	1	0.29mi
5444 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$3,995	$1.78	21d	1	0.31mi
5414 Espada Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$10,995	$3.93	21d	1	0.32mi
5728 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$3,995	$1.89	11d	1	0.33mi
5722 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$3,995	$1.89	11d	1	0.34mi
5065 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2557	$3,250	$1.27	21d	1	0.36mi
5077 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2256	$3,950	$1.75	23d	1	0.38mi
5039 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2341	$5,995	$2.56	23d	1	0.40mi
5478 Double Eagle Cir #3521 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$4,995	$3.18	23d	1	0.46mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	11d	1	0.46mi
5322 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1918	$2,700	$1.41	13d	1	0.48mi
5013 Florence Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,900	$1.29	23d	1	0.49mi
5856 Sunningdale St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,995	$4.00	23d	1	0.52mi
5515 Whistling Straights Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2419	$6,500	$2.69	21d	1	0.53mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$4,000	$2.62	23d	1	0.54mi
4919 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2350	$3,300	$1.40	23d	1	0.54mi
5285 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,600	$1.15	23d	1	0.55mi
5293 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$3,400	$1.51	21d	1	0.56mi
5897 Sunningdale St Ave Maria, FL	2.0	3.0	2000	$7,495	$3.75	23d	1	0.63mi
5476 Katia Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1983	$4,300	$2.17	23d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 568-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $386,998 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,678
• − Property taxes: −$5,805
• − Insurance: −$1,935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,617
• − Management: −$4,617
• − Depreciation: −$11,258
• Taxable income: $7,800
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,872
• After-tax cash flow: $11,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B