1046 Comanche Rd · New Home, TX 79381

$575,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 3,007 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2018 1.00 ac lot $25/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come home to a property that has everything you've been looking for! You will find this beautiful home in a sought after a private community. Nestled on a full acre of land, your home is surrounded by beautiful landscaping all year long. Built in 2018, unsurpassed attention to detail is evident throughout. A fine foyer with chandelier greets you as you step inside. The open living area before you includes an inspiring cathedral ceiling that soars above you and tremendous fireplace. Your huge kitchen is a wonderful place to create gourmet meals and offers the quality appliances you expect in a fine home. Out back you will find an immense fenced in yard that is perfect for entertaining or just playing a game of catch. The covered patio will be everyone's favorite spot to chat during your summer celebrations. All this and so much more is just waiting for you. Schedule your virtual or in person tour today!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2018

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed by Keller Williams Realty
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $300 (about $25/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank with aerobic system
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and stone exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with traditional residential construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Fenced yard; Landscaped yard; Front and rear sprinklers; Paved driveway/road access; Public maintained road; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Built-in refrigerator; Disposal; Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Storage; Walk-in closets; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $575k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $541k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $510k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $510k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#343 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• New Home ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #16 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lynn County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $510,000 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $62,416
• Equity at exit: $263,996

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $233,391
• Equity at exit: $411,138

Cash invested: $161,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79381

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax from tax record: −$941 /mo · $11,288/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,071
• Net cashflow: $-192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,343

Max offer price $541,153

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $-29	+0% $-192	+5% $-354	+10% $-517
Rent	-10% $-595	-5% $-393	+0% $-192	+5% $10	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $-45	base $-192	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,750
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Juniper St New Home, TX	4.0	3.0	2594	$5,100	$1.97	14d	1	0.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1109-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $575,000 Active 1109-char remark
3. 2020-07-14
   soldstatus 915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   Come home to a property that has everything you've been looking for! You will find this beautiful home in a sought after a private community. Nestled on a full acre of land, your home is surrounded by beautiful landscaping all year long. Built in 2018, unsurpassed attention to detail is evident throughout. A fine foyer with chandelier greets you as you step inside. The open living area before you includes an inspiring cathedral ceiling that soars above you and tremendous fireplace. Your huge kitchen is a wonderful place to create gourmet meals and offers the quality appliances you expect in a fine home. Out back you will find an immense fenced in yard that is perfect for entertaining or just playing a game of catch. The covered patio will be everyone's favorite spot to chat during your summer celebrations. All this and so much more is just waiting for you. Schedule your virtual or in person tour today!

4. 2020-05-27
   listed $465,000 915-char remark

   Show marketing remark (915 chars)

   Come home to a property that has everything you've been looking for! You will find this beautiful home in a sought after a private community. Nestled on a full acre of land, your home is surrounded by beautiful landscaping all year long. Built in 2018, unsurpassed attention to detail is evident throughout. A fine foyer with chandelier greets you as you step inside. The open living area before you includes an inspiring cathedral ceiling that soars above you and tremendous fireplace. Your huge kitchen is a wonderful place to create gourmet meals and offers the quality appliances you expect in a fine home. Out back you will find an immense fenced in yard that is perfect for entertaining or just playing a game of catch. The covered patio will be everyone's favorite spot to chat during your summer celebrations. All this and so much more is just waiting for you. Schedule your virtual or in person tour today!

5. 2020-04-28
   listed $477,000
6. 2018-08-01
   soldstatus
7. 2018-03-28
   listed $409,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,288 · $941/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,288 · $941/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,209
• − Property taxes: −$11,288
• − Insurance: −$2,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,896
• − Management: −$4,896
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable loss: −$11,991
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,878
• After-tax cash flow: $579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Home ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832490
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,372
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #845
• State rank: #16 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Home

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #7488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 47
• Population (ZIP): 1,457

Population outlook (Lynn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,360 people
• By 2030: 5,162 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 4,811 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 4,422 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 3,362 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 2,177 · -59.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 22% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynn

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.3) · D 14.4% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -40.0pp · 2024: -70.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.3 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+40.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Current HPI: 125.9221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+40.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $575,000 LARMLS
• 2020-07-14 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2020-05-27 Listed $465,000 LARMLS
• 2020-04-28 Listed $477,000 LARMLS
• 2018-08-01 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2018-03-28 Listed $409,999 LARMLS

Property tax history

+112.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,288 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.