3843 Chris Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1989 4,320 sqft lot Est $127k · 11% over $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

KITCHEN REMODEL IN 2019: New built in china cabinet in 2018! 2 bedroom, 2 bath, updated bathrooms with tiled floors. Accented with laminate in most areas and this home is so clean! Large master bedroom and walk shower in the master bath. Front den that leads to the comfortable screened porch. Carport with utility storage at one end and clean bright siding for curb appeal. This community offers a pool, clubhouse, activities and shuffleboard. Nice wide streets! Great location close to grocery, home store, eateries, pharmacy and not far from Wiregrass Town Center. Small pets ok with some restrictions. Inventory of available properties is low, don't wait to contact me to see this home!

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Upgraded plumbing
• Florida room

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• UPGRADED PLUMBING
• UPGRADED CABINETRY
• BUILT-IN CABINETS
• FLORIDA ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association name: Ron DeGidio; Total annual association fees reported as $516
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (approval required); Monthly HOA fee $43; annual fee $516; Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Community features: deed restrictions, sidewalks, golf carts allowed, association-owned recreation; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); max pet weight 20 lbs

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; Faces east; Residential property
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Building area approximately 1,540 sq ft (public records)
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room; Washer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $561 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $140k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.19%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,588
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3906 Sarah Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	936 (+1%)	8mo	$128,000	$137	88
3915 Julie Dr	0.06mi	2/1.5	964 (+4%)	6mo	$90,000	$93	82
3921 Chris Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	8mo	$142,500	$135	67
33620 Isabelle Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	962 (+4%)	17mo	$170,000	$177	66
3914 Kim Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	12mo	$145,000	$137	63
34121 Tree Lake Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	988 (+7%)	9mo	$118,000	$119	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $7,663
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $31,775
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $681/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,131

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $640	-5% $601	+0% $561	+5% $522	+10% $482
Rent	-10% $416	-5% $489	+0% $561	+5% $634	+10% $707
Rate	-1.0pp $632	-0.5pp $597	base $561	+0.5pp $525	+1.0pp $488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	25d	1	0.02mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$1,956	$1.85	0d	13	0.25mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	13d	71	0.73mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,208	$2.16	3d	46	0.82mi
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	15d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 693-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $139,900 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    price $145,000
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $160,000 Active
17. 2019-05-31
    soldstatus $67,500
18. 2019-05-30
    soldstatus $67,500 Sold 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    KITCHEN REMODEL IN 2019: New built in china cabinet in 2018! 2 bedroom, 2 bath, updated bathrooms with tiled floors. Accented with laminate in most areas and this home is so clean! Large master bedroom and walk shower in the master bath. Front den that leads to the comfortable screened porch. Carport with utility storage at one end and clean bright siding for curb appeal. This community offers a pool, clubhouse, activities and shuffleboard. Nice wide streets! Great location close to grocery, home store, eateries, pharmacy and not far from Wiregrass Town Center. Small pets ok with some restrictions. Inventory of available properties is low, don't wait to contact me to see this home!

19. 2019-04-22
    status Pending 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    KITCHEN REMODEL IN 2019: New built in china cabinet in 2018! 2 bedroom, 2 bath, updated bathrooms with tiled floors. Accented with laminate in most areas and this home is so clean! Large master bedroom and walk shower in the master bath. Front den that leads to the comfortable screened porch. Carport with utility storage at one end and clean bright siding for curb appeal. This community offers a pool, clubhouse, activities and shuffleboard. Nice wide streets! Great location close to grocery, home store, eateries, pharmacy and not far from Wiregrass Town Center. Small pets ok with some restrictions. Inventory of available properties is low, don't wait to contact me to see this home!

20. 2019-03-27
    listed $69,900 Active 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    KITCHEN REMODEL IN 2019: New built in china cabinet in 2018! 2 bedroom, 2 bath, updated bathrooms with tiled floors. Accented with laminate in most areas and this home is so clean! Large master bedroom and walk shower in the master bath. Front den that leads to the comfortable screened porch. Carport with utility storage at one end and clean bright siding for curb appeal. This community offers a pool, clubhouse, activities and shuffleboard. Nice wide streets! Great location close to grocery, home store, eateries, pharmacy and not far from Wiregrass Town Center. Small pets ok with some restrictions. Inventory of available properties is low, don't wait to contact me to see this home!

21. 2014-06-18
    soldstatus $32,000
22. 2014-06-14
    status Pending 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Open, spacious floor plan in a wonderful and clean 55+ community. Laminate flooring throughout, brand new appliances, newer central heat and air!! This one is priced right for a quick and easy transaction.

23. 2014-06-13
    soldstatus $32,000 Sold 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Open, spacious floor plan in a wonderful and clean 55+ community. Laminate flooring throughout, brand new appliances, newer central heat and air!! This one is priced right for a quick and easy transaction.

24. 2014-06-10
    historical 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Open, spacious floor plan in a wonderful and clean 55+ community. Laminate flooring throughout, brand new appliances, newer central heat and air!! This one is priced right for a quick and easy transaction.

25. 2014-06-05
    status Pending 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Open, spacious floor plan in a wonderful and clean 55+ community. Laminate flooring throughout, brand new appliances, newer central heat and air!! This one is priced right for a quick and easy transaction.

26. 2014-05-26
    listed $34,900 Active 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Open, spacious floor plan in a wonderful and clean 55+ community. Laminate flooring throughout, brand new appliances, newer central heat and air!! This one is priced right for a quick and easy transaction.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $681 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$480/yr (+$40/mo · 70.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$681
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $4,738
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,137
• After-tax cash flow: $5,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+315.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2019-05-30 Sold (MLS) $67,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-27 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-13 Sold (MLS) $32,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-26 Listed $34,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $681 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.