8736 Bay Ave · California City, CA 93505

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1972 9,583 sqft lot $192/sqft · 12% below area Est $273k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offering approximately 1,250 sq ft of comfortable living space. Situated on a spacious 9,583 sq ft lot, this property provides plenty of room for outdoor use, storage, or future possibilities. The home has been cared for over the years and presents a great opportunity for a buyer to move in as-is or gradually update to their personal taste. The large lot features two generously sized sheds/workshops, ideal for hobbies, storage, or workspace needs. Equipped with solar for energy efficiency, this property offers added value and long-term utility savings. Conveniently located with easy access to main roads, this home is a solid option

Key facts

• Easy access
• Solar energy
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• TWO SHEDS
• SOLAR ENERGY
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1; Lot is rectangular; Paved public streets; Tract 2067; APN 203-134-04
• HOA & community: No HOA services included (see remarks)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Traditional style; Single-story
• Construction: Stucco and wood construction; Composition shingle roof; Concrete slab foundation; Solar (green energy generation)
• Exterior features: Back block fencing; Deck; RV access; Front sprinklers; Solar panels (leased); Two storage units; Barbeque; Gazebo; Workshop; Rear lawn; Front lawn

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (gas); Central air
• Interior features: Dining area; Living room fireplace (gas); Two storage units; Barbeque; Gazebo; Workshop; Wheelchair adaptable; Pets allowed; Front lawn; Rear lawn; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-503/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 703 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $148k; list at $240k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,977 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.75%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,718
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -12.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8668 S Loop Blvd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,277 (+2%)	1mo	$290,000	$227	87
8824 Lupine Loop	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-0%)	2mo	$240,000	$192	74
8301 Dogwood Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+4%)	0mo	$240,000	$184	71
9312 California City Blvd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-0%)	4mo	$265,000	$212	68
8436 Walpole Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (-2%)	3mo	$280,000	$228	68
8412 Ironwood	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,224 (-2%)	3mo	$158,000	$129	64
20201 Airway Blvd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,311 (+5%)	4mo	$190,000	$145	57
20636 91st St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+11%)	6mo	$295,000	$213	54
8760 South Loop Blvd	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,429 (+14%)	5mo	$319,900	$224	53
20412 90th St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+14%)	3mo	$250,000	$175	49
8260 Greenwood	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+15%)	4mo	$290,000	$203	47
8457 Great Circle Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,429 (+14%)	6mo	$280,000	$196	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $132,714
• Equity at exit: $216,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.01×
• Total profit: $403,518
• Equity at exit: $466,073

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93505

• Home prices YoY: 13.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 703
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,121/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,943

Max offer price $232,502

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $26	+0% $-42	+5% $-110	+10% $-178
Rent	-10% $-191	-5% $-117	+0% $-42	+5% $33	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $19	base $-42	+0.5pp $-104	+1.0pp $-167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8651 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	3d	1	0.15mi
8709 Xavier Ave Unit 3 California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	15d	1	0.22mi
8801 S Loop Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,600	$1.69	24d	1	0.29mi
8531 Columbine Ave Unit B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	15d	1	0.32mi
8816 Fuchsia Ave Unit PASSTHROUGH B California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,550	$1.44	15d	1	0.37mi
21231 Corwin St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1632	$2,500	$1.53	24d	1	0.43mi
20961 83rd St Unit 6 California City, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	24d	1	0.46mi
20673 Medio St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,075	$1.23	24d	1	0.47mi
20321 88th St California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,100	$1.79	24d	1	0.54mi
8318 Dogbane Ave Unit F California City, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,350	$1.53	24d	1	0.55mi
9213 Holly Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,900	$1.42	3d	1	0.56mi
20312 Dean Ct California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1742	$1,975	$1.13	15d	1	0.58mi
8648 Lime Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1459	$2,400	$1.64	24d	1	0.60mi
8100 Fernwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,850	$1.38	24d	1	0.69mi
21411 Hacienda Blvd Unit D California City, CA	2.0	2.0	898	$1,475	$1.64	24d	1	0.73mi
8560 Nipa Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,850	$1.41	15d	1	0.74mi
8848 Oleander Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	0.77mi
8160 Kalmia Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,795	$1.41	24d	1	0.85mi
20001 Airway Blvd California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,400	$2.29	24d	1	0.85mi
21032 79th St California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1228	$2,100	$1.71	24d	1	0.86mi
9225 Peach Ave Unit A California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,950	$1.53	24d	1	0.93mi
9524 Sally Ave Unit C California City, CA	2.0	1.5	1140	$1,300	$1.14	24d	1	1.00mi
7819 Walpole Ave California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,399	$1.55	24d	1	1.02mi
9548 Sally Ave Unit B California City, CA	3.0	2.5	1200	$1,695	$1.41	24d	1	1.03mi
8512 Tamarack Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,875	$1.25	24d	1	1.05mi
9019 Evelyn Ave California City, CA	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,600	$1.50	3d	1	1.06mi
7733 Walpole Ave Unit A California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	24d	1	1.08mi
9610 Oleander Ave Unit A California City, CA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,575	$1.21	24d	1	1.09mi
9000 Underwood Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,900	$1.23	24d	1	1.10mi
21001 Berry St Unit 5 California City, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,150	$1.29	24d	1	1.12mi
8312 Tamarack Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1539	$1,900	$1.23	24d	1	1.13mi
8307 Charles Pl California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,750	$1.17	15d	1	1.13mi
8332 Rea Ave California City, CA	4.0	3.0	1861	$2,500	$1.34	3d	1	1.14mi
7617 California City Blvd Apt B California City, CA	2.0	1.0	894	$1,225	$1.37	3d	1	1.15mi
8449 Viburnum Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,695	$1.39	3d	1	1.15mi
9749 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	3d	1	1.19mi
9749 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	11d	1	1.19mi
9749 N Loop Blvd California City, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	24d	1	1.19mi
21235 Windsong St California City, CA	3.0	3.0	1780	$2,100	$1.18	24d	1	1.23mi
8260 Viburnum Ave California City, CA	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,000	$1.49	3d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-23
   listed $239,900 Active 758-char remark
2. 2023-05-16
   price $239,990
3. 2023-05-15
   listed Active
4. 2021-01-04
   soldstatus $148,000
5. 2020-12-31
   soldstatus $148,000 Closed
6. 2020-10-19
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,121
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$4,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,125
• After-tax cash flow: $623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mojave Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625230
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,017
• Composite: 21.4/100
• National rank: #8350
• State rank: #411 of 517 in CA

Livability — California City

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1329
• US rank: #26753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California City, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 14,353
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,353
• Household income: $59,827
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 40% White 30% Black 22% Two or more races 16% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 29%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.32%
• Current HPI: 402.4192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+60.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $239,900 AVMLS
• 2023-05-16 Price Changed $239,990 AVMLS
• 2023-05-15 Listed — TheMLS
• 2021-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $148,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-31 Sold (MLS) $148,000 AVMLS
• 2020-10-19 Listed $149,900 AVMLS

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,121 · -5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.