54 Spencer Dr · New Concord, KY 42076

$31,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 340 Days on market

Built 1995 0.30 ac lot ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

54 SPENCER DR – GREAT OPPORTUNITY NEAR KENTUCKY LAKE! This 3 BED, 2 BATH, 1,280 SQ FT home sits in a QUIET AND PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD in New Concord, just 5 minutes from Fort Heiman National Battlefield, Missing Hill Resort, and Near Cypress Springs Marina. With a functional layout and a spacious lot, this property offers excellent potential for those looking to update or invest. Enjoy close access to lake activities, boating, and nature. Whether you're planning a renovation project, a weekend getaway, or an income property, this location is hard to beat. SCHEDULE YOUR PRIVATE SHOWING TODAY! (Currently has no water source, a cistern or well will need to be installed. )

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Kentucky lake
• 0.3 acre lot

Tags

• KENTUCKY LAKE
• SPACIOUS LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available to the property

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.3 acres; Septic tank

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Unbranded virtual tour available
• Laundry & utility: Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $665 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Calloway County (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #19 of 165 in KY (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Calloway County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $218 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $945 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calloway County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 340 days — a 12% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $27,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 340 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.47%
• DSCR: 5.03
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.23×
• Total profit: $37,265
• Equity at exit: $4,697

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.87×
• Total profit: $87,054
• Equity at exit: $2,724

Cash invested: $8,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42076

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,117 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$165
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$39 /mo · $472/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $665

Break-even live

Break-even rent $276

Max offer price $31,500

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $687	-5% $676	+0% $665	+5% $654	+10% $643
Rent	-10% $577	-5% $621	+0% $665	+5% $709	+10% $753
Rate	-1.0pp $681	-0.5pp $673	base $665	+0.5pp $657	+1.0pp $649

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,875
• Closing costs: $945
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $31,500 Active 340 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $31,500 Active 338 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $31,500 Active 337 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $31,500 Active 336 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $31,500 Active 335 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $31,500 Active 334 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $31,500 Active 332 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $31,500 Active 331 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $31,500 Active 328 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $31,500 Active 327 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $31,500 Active 326 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $31,500 Active 321 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $31,500 Active 320 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $31,500 Active 319 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $31,500 Active 318 DOM
16. 2026-03-17
    price $31,500
17. 2025-12-29
    price $36,900
18. 2025-10-21
    price $39,900
19. 2025-07-29
    price $44,900
20. 2025-07-16
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,764
• − Property taxes: −$472
• − Insurance: −$158
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,073
• − Management: −$1,073
• − Depreciation: −$916
• Taxable income: $7,952
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,908
• After-tax cash flow: $6,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calloway County
• NCES district ID: 2100870
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $38,849
• Composite: 38.39/100
• National rank: #4208
• State rank: #19 of 165 in KY

Livability — New Concord

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,085

Population outlook (Calloway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,071 people
• By 2030: 42,608 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 45,435 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 48,501 · +18.1%
• By 2075: 56,481 · +37.5%
• By 2100: 63,271 · +54.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Pacific Islander 3% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 12% Italian 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Calloway

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.2% · R 68.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.80%
• Current HPI: 2061.2977
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-36.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $31,500 WKRMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $36,900 WKRMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $39,900 WKRMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $44,900 WKRMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $49,900 WKRMLS