3022 Marshall St · Rockford, IL 61109

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1960 5,663 sqft lot Est $71k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity in Rockford! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offers strong potential for an investor, flipper, or buyer willing to put in some sweat equity. With a roof replaced within the last 5 years, the property is ready for updates and your finishing touches. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Roof replaced
• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Built 1960

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• ROOF REPLACED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence (house); Residential property
• Construction: Lot approximately 0.13 acres
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas water heater; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($990 rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $46k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.97%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $71,400
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3136 Sewell St	0.17mi	2/1.0	520 (-13%)	3mo	$57,000	$110	68
2729 Horton St	0.35mi	2/1.0	672 (+12%)	1mo	$98,000	$146	63
2824 22nd St	0.57mi	1/1.0 (-1)	660 (+10%)	3mo	$66,000	$100	50
2922 Collins St	0.65mi	2/1.0	672 (+12%)	2mo	$80,000	$119	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $8,788
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $32,623
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61109

• Home prices YoY: -19.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $607

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2846 Lapey St Rockford, IL	1.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	43d	1	0.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $65,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   remarks 304-char remark
3. 2026-06-03
   listed $65,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,335 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,405 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$70/yr (+$6/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$950
• − Management: −$950
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $2,786
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$669
• After-tax cash flow: $2,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 26,768
• Household income: $62,973
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 941.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.42%
• Current HPI: 296.0019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+202.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $65,000 NWIAR
• 2005-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 1995-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $21,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,335 · +20.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.