1009 E First St · El Dorado, AR 71730

$25,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 175 Days on market

7,840 sqft lot ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity! This 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers 1,170 square feet of living space and is being sold as-is, where-is, with all faults. Perfect for investors or buyers looking for a renovation project with strong potential.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 175 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($868 rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.8% vs local median 4.1% in El Dorado — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#65 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-, employment D, crime F.
• El Dorado School District (town): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #134 of 238 in AR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: El Dorado High School (math 19% / reading 32%, grade F, #182 of 292 statewide, top 63%, 1,303 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 61% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 20 units permitted in Union County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Union County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $22,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.18%
• DSCR: 5.06
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.26×
• Total profit: $29,825
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: 94.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.94×
• Total profit: $69,596
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71730

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $868 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $146/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $195

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
411 Hudson St El Dorado, AR	3.0	1.5	1073	$970	$0.90	43d	1	0.80mi
111 Hargett Dr El Dorado, AR	2.0	1.5	875	$850	$0.97	43d	1	0.84mi
119 Hargett Dr El Dorado, AR	1.0	1.0	770	$740	$0.96	43d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-13
   price $25,000
3. 2025-10-22
   price $29,000
4. 2025-09-26
   listed $32,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $146 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $160 · $13/mo
• Expected delta: +$14/yr (+$1/mo · 9.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$146
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$833
• − Management: −$833
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $6,349
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,524
• After-tax cash flow: $4,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Dorado School District
• NCES district ID: 0505680
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,122
• Composite: 27.36/100
• National rank: #6979
• State rank: #134 of 238 in AR

Livability — El Dorado

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #65
• US rank: #8444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Dorado, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,187

Population outlook (Union County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,422 people
• By 2030: 35,808 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 32,605 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 29,688 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 23,691 · -36.7%
• By 2100: 17,950 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 32% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Union

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.36%
• Current HPI: 155.8786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-21.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $25,000 CARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $29,000 CARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $32,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $146 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.