2135 - THE JAXSON Plan · Lubbock, TX 79423

$280,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,154 sqft · SingleFamily · 148 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Jaxson is one of our one-story floor plans newly featured in the Viridian community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring a timeless brick exterior and elevated interior accents, the Jaxson is sure to turn heads. Step inside this 5 bedroom, 2 and a half bathroom home, and discover 2,135 square feet of comfortable modern living. The spacious Jaxson features a large open concept family, kitchen, and dining area, creating the perfect space for your family to enjoy every moment together, from meal prep to movie night. The kitchen features shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, stylish backsplash, and stainless steel appliances, ideal for making your routine a little more effortless. Each of the five bedrooms feature plush carpet floors and plenty of room to grow. The primary bedroom even features its own attached bathroom, complete with cultured marble vanity tops and a walk-in closet, perfect for additional privacy and serenity. Take a look outside and discover your backyard oasis, complete with a spacious covered patio. Whether you're grilling on warm summer nights, running around with the kids, or playing fetch with the dog, you'll have the perfect spot to do so. The Jaxson is truly an ideal place to call home. Contact us today and find your home in Viridian!

Key facts

• Brick exterior
• Stylish backsplash
• Granite countertops

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STYLISH BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• PLUSH CARPET FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $281k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-641/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock-Cooper ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #98 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,044 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.81%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-50,973
• Equity at exit: $41,897

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-56,985
• Equity at exit: $24,295

Cash invested: $78,677 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79423

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 663
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,390 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,474
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$351 /mo · $4,215/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,458

Max offer price $273,261

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,248
• Closing costs: $8,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2903 134th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,300	$1.23	21d	1	0.06mi
2726 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1929	$2,400	$1.24	21d	1	0.26mi
2713 138th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	21d	1	0.31mi
2925 138th Pl Lubbock, TX	5.0	2.5	2135	$2,495	$1.17	14d	1	0.33mi
3008 139th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	21d	1	0.39mi
3110 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,700	$1.34	14d	1	0.48mi
3110 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2018	$2,800	$1.39	44d	1	0.48mi
3105 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	14d	1	0.50mi
3111 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,050	$1.28	44d	1	0.52mi
3605 128th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2544	$3,800	$1.49	44d	1	0.88mi
13218 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	44d	1	1.03mi
1907 136th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,050	$1.00	14d	1	1.03mi
13213 Sherman Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	1.05mi
2217 150th Pl Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$2,150	$1.21	14d	1	1.22mi
3618 119th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.5	2167	$2,950	$1.36	21d	1	1.34mi
1611 140th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$550	$0.32	21d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,990 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,990 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,990 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,990 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $280,990 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,990 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $280,990 Active 140 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,990 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,990 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $280,990 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $280,990 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,990 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,990 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,990 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,990 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $280,990 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-01-21
    listed $280,990 Active 1275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1275 chars)

    The Jaxson is one of our one-story floor plans newly featured in the Viridian community in Lubbock, TX. Featuring a timeless brick exterior and elevated interior accents, the Jaxson is sure to turn heads. Step inside this 5 bedroom, 2 and a half bathroom home, and discover 2,135 square feet of comfortable modern living. The spacious Jaxson features a large open concept family, kitchen, and dining area, creating the perfect space for your family to enjoy every moment together, from meal prep to movie night. The kitchen features shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, stylish backsplash, and stainless steel appliances, ideal for making your routine a little more effortless. Each of the five bedrooms feature plush carpet floors and plenty of room to grow. The primary bedroom even features its own attached bathroom, complete with cultured marble vanity tops and a walk-in closet, perfect for additional privacy and serenity. Take a look outside and discover your backyard oasis, complete with a spacious covered patio. Whether you're grilling on warm summer nights, running around with the kids, or playing fetch with the dog, you'll have the perfect spot to do so. The Jaxson is truly an ideal place to call home. Contact us today and find your home in Viridian!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,740
• − Property taxes: −$4,215
• − Insurance: −$1,405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,295
• − Management: −$2,295
• − Depreciation: −$8,174
• Taxable loss: −$5,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,305
• After-tax cash flow: $664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Jaxson is a well-maintained, one-story home with a good condition score. It offers a spacious layout and modern finishes, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace landscaping with drought-tolerant plants — Drought-tolerant plants can reduce maintenance and improve curb appeal.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with drought-tolerant plants — Drought-tolerant plants can reduce maintenance and improve curb appeal. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock-Cooper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815180
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $77,347
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2214
• State rank: #98 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,998
• Household income: $84,933
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.00%
• Current HPI: 213.6491
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.13%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Listed $280,990 Zillow