9406 Lamine Way · Ruskin, FL 34219

$405,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,622 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2022 5,458 sqft lot Est $467k · 13% under $9/mo HOA ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Short Sale. Discover the perfect blend of beauty, comfort, and community in this stunning 5 bedroom, 3 bath home located in Brightwood at North River Ranch, one of Parrish’s most desirable neighborhoods. From the moment you arrive, you’ll feel right at home surrounded by resort style amenities and a welcoming atmosphere that makes every day feel like a getaway. Just minutes from I75, this location offers easy access to Tampa, St. Pete, and Sarasota, plus nearby conveniences including a future hospital, churches, restaurants, clothing stores, and a grocery store less than a mile away. Inside Brightwood, life moves at your pace. Enjoy a 4100

Key facts

• Community table
• Screened game room
• 5,458 sq ft lot

Tags

• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• SPARKLING RESORT STYLE POOL
• FULLY EQUIPPED FITNESS CENTER
• SCREENED GAME ROOM
• FIREPIT UNDER FLORIDA SKIES
• COMMUNITY TABLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $353k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $353k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $353,100 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.18%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $466,716
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11430 Gallatin Trl	0.13mi	5/2.5	2,589 (-1%)	2mo	$395,000	$153	88
10239 Spruce River Way	0.55mi	5/3.0	2,615 (-0%)	1mo	$516,990	$198	73
11358 Meadow River Way	0.69mi	5/3.0	2,615 (-0%)	1mo	$469,130	$179	66
11354 Meadow River Way	0.69mi	5/3.0	2,597 (-1%)	0mo	$462,610	$178	66
11366 Meadow River Way	0.69mi	5/3.0	2,597 (-1%)	1mo	$459,160	$177	66
11216 Gallatin Trl	0.19mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,895 (+10%)	2mo	$545,000	$188	65
10422 Cross River Trl	0.71mi	5/3.0	2,597 (-1%)	2mo	$422,970	$163	64
9907 Wimico Ter	0.73mi	5/3.0	2,447 (-7%)	2mo	$399,000	$163	53
11359 Meadow River Way	0.65mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,397 (-9%)	1mo	$525,510	$219	49
10717 Spanish Needle Cv	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,333 (-11%)	0mo	$408,500	$175	42
11346 Meadow River Way	0.69mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,262 (-14%)	2mo	$440,100	$195	39
10729 Monarch Wood Gln	0.69mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,260 (-14%)	0mo	$366,160	$162	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-56,995
• Equity at exit: $60,387

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-65,560
• Equity at exit: $35,017

Cash invested: $113,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,531 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,253/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$9
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$742
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,151

Max offer price $405,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,250
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11512 Gallatin Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1929	$3,300	$1.71	24d	1	0.19mi
9544 Sandy Bluffs Cir Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2557	$2,950	$1.15	3d	1	0.72mi
8031 111th Ter E Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	3067	$4,150	$1.35	24d	1	0.90mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,789	$1.23	3d	1	1.02mi
10225 Kalamazoo Pl Unit NA Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2260	$2,689	$1.19	10d	1	1.02mi
10225 Daybreak Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	1978	$2,600	$1.31	3d	1	1.12mi
12067 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,495	$1.22	3d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $9 · $108/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   status Active
3. 2026-02-09
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-01
   price $405,000
5. 2026-01-15
   status Active
6. 2025-12-05
   status Pending
7. 2025-10-23
   listed $438,000 Active
8. 2024-05-08
   historical
9. 2024-04-20
   price $539,900
10. 2024-03-28
    listed $567,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,253 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,362 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,109/yr (+$92/mo · 49.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$2,253
• − Insurance: −$2,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,390
• − Management: −$3,390
• − HOA: −$108
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable loss: −$3,261
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$783
• After-tax cash flow: $4,385/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-28.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $405,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Listed $438,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-20 Price Changed $539,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-28 Listed $567,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,253 · -3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.