1930 W San Marcos Blvd #172 · San Marcos, CA 92078

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1981 3,999 sqft lot $249/sqft · 17% below area Est $359k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful two bedroom and two bath home in highly desired Palomar Estates West. The open floor plan and vaulted ceiling in the living room make this home feel very spacious. The remodeled kitchen has beautiful wood cabinets, an island with a bar top, and stainless steel appliances. The home has vinyl dual-pane windows and plantation shutters throughout the main living areas and bedrooms. Both bathrooms have been remodeled as well. Outside you have two porches to enjoy the wonderful San Marcos climate, a small yard, and some mature citrus trees. A shed gives you extra space to store your items. Palomar Estates West is a 5 star 55+/35+ senior rent controlled park with many activities and amenities including a beautiful clubhouse, heated pool, spa, gym, putting green, pickleball courts, and tennis courts. This home is located minutes to Lake San Marcos dining and golf as well as local Carlsbad beaches, shopping, and restaurants.

Key facts

• Shed
• Remodeled kitchen
• Plantation shutters

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• VINYL DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• TWO PORCHES
• MATURE CITRUS TREES
• SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $586 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $272k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.5% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in CA, #3,074 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 232 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $272,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.40%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,210
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -16.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #127	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,341 (+12%)	3mo	$300,000	$224	78
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #118	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,153 (-4%)	2mo	$213,000	$185	75
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #54	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	2mo	$260,000	$208	74
1930 W San Marcos Blvd #425	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	2mo	$320,000	$238	73
3535 Linda Vista Dr #50	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+14%)	1mo	$358,000	$262	64
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #312	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	1mo	$267,000	$199	62
3535 Linda Vista Dr #321	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	1mo	$275,000	$205	62
3535 Linda Vista Dr #153	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+14%)	4mo	$410,000	$300	62
650 S Rancho Santa Fe. Rd #294	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	2mo	$228,500	$170	61
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #291	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	3mo	$300,000	$223	60
650 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd #52	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	3mo	$199,000	$148	60
2010 W San Marcos Blvd #54	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+12%)	1mo	$684,999	$510	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-19,780
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-2,875
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92078

• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,358 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$705
• Net cashflow: $586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2010 W San Marcos Blvd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,000	$3.11	44d	1	0.34mi
3919 Las Cruces Ave San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	5d	1	0.52mi
830 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	826	$3,150	$3.81	2d	5	0.53mi
658 Las Flores Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	1.0	1284	$3,650	$2.84	44d	1	0.55mi
3815 La Rosa Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	1.0	1014	$3,700	$3.65	12d	1	0.63mi
910 S Rancho Santa Fe Rd Unit 1 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,900	$3.05	24d	1	0.65mi
3834 La Rosa Dr Unit A San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	1014	$4,200	$4.14	44d	1	0.68mi
1643 Rue de Valle San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.5	1086	$3,222	$2.97	18d	1	0.71mi
603 Beverly Pl San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.5	1068	$3,150	$2.95	44d	1	0.77mi
1029 Martina Ct San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,995	$2.50	44d	1	0.97mi
1635 Creek St San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0	1047	$3,450	$3.29	15d	3	0.98mi
941 La Fiesta Way San Marcos, CA	1.0	1.0	720	$2,550	$3.54	44d	1	1.04mi
1560 Circa Del Lago Unit D302 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1030	$4,500	$4.37	44d	1	1.09mi
1560 Circa Del Lago Unit D304 San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	1030	$4,500	$4.37	24d	1	1.09mi
420 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	896	$2,445	$2.73	3d	3	1.22mi
1241 W San Marcos Blvd San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	883	$2,400	$2.72	44d	1	1.23mi
920 Sycamore Ave Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,675	$2.82	3d	1	1.34mi
320 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	44d	1	1.44mi
320 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	24d	1	1.44mi
1604 Via Inspirar San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1222	$3,850	$3.15	44d	1	1.44mi
300 Smilax Rd Unit 11 San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	24d	1	1.45mi
1510 Calle Devanar San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1222	$3,595	$2.94	5d	1	1.45mi
266 Avenida de Suerte San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1132	$3,495	$3.09	22d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 104 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $299,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    historical Active Under Contract 939-char remark

    Show marketing remark (939 chars)

    Wonderful two bedroom and two bath home in highly desired Palomar Estates West. The open floor plan and vaulted ceiling in the living room make this home feel very spacious. The remodeled kitchen has beautiful wood cabinets, an island with a bar top, and stainless steel appliances. The home has vinyl dual-pane windows and plantation shutters throughout the main living areas and bedrooms. Both bathrooms have been remodeled as well. Outside you have two porches to enjoy the wonderful San Marcos climate, a small yard, and some mature citrus trees. A shed gives you extra space to store your items. Palomar Estates West is a 5 star 55+/35+ senior rent controlled park with many activities and amenities including a beautiful clubhouse, heated pool, spa, gym, putting green, pickleball courts, and tennis courts. This home is located minutes to Lake San Marcos dining and golf as well as local Carlsbad beaches, shopping, and restaurants.

16. 2026-05-05
    price $309,000 939-char remark

    Show marketing remark (939 chars)

    Wonderful two bedroom and two bath home in highly desired Palomar Estates West. The open floor plan and vaulted ceiling in the living room make this home feel very spacious. The remodeled kitchen has beautiful wood cabinets, an island with a bar top, and stainless steel appliances. The home has vinyl dual-pane windows and plantation shutters throughout the main living areas and bedrooms. Both bathrooms have been remodeled as well. Outside you have two porches to enjoy the wonderful San Marcos climate, a small yard, and some mature citrus trees. A shed gives you extra space to store your items. Palomar Estates West is a 5 star 55+/35+ senior rent controlled park with many activities and amenities including a beautiful clubhouse, heated pool, spa, gym, putting green, pickleball courts, and tennis courts. This home is located minutes to Lake San Marcos dining and golf as well as local Carlsbad beaches, shopping, and restaurants.

17. 2026-04-22
    price $339,000 939-char remark

    Show marketing remark (939 chars)

    Wonderful two bedroom and two bath home in highly desired Palomar Estates West. The open floor plan and vaulted ceiling in the living room make this home feel very spacious. The remodeled kitchen has beautiful wood cabinets, an island with a bar top, and stainless steel appliances. The home has vinyl dual-pane windows and plantation shutters throughout the main living areas and bedrooms. Both bathrooms have been remodeled as well. Outside you have two porches to enjoy the wonderful San Marcos climate, a small yard, and some mature citrus trees. A shed gives you extra space to store your items. Palomar Estates West is a 5 star 55+/35+ senior rent controlled park with many activities and amenities including a beautiful clubhouse, heated pool, spa, gym, putting green, pickleball courts, and tennis courts. This home is located minutes to Lake San Marcos dining and golf as well as local Carlsbad beaches, shopping, and restaurants.

18. 2026-04-06
    price $349,000 939-char remark

    Show marketing remark (939 chars)

    Wonderful two bedroom and two bath home in highly desired Palomar Estates West. The open floor plan and vaulted ceiling in the living room make this home feel very spacious. The remodeled kitchen has beautiful wood cabinets, an island with a bar top, and stainless steel appliances. The home has vinyl dual-pane windows and plantation shutters throughout the main living areas and bedrooms. Both bathrooms have been remodeled as well. Outside you have two porches to enjoy the wonderful San Marcos climate, a small yard, and some mature citrus trees. A shed gives you extra space to store your items. Palomar Estates West is a 5 star 55+/35+ senior rent controlled park with many activities and amenities including a beautiful clubhouse, heated pool, spa, gym, putting green, pickleball courts, and tennis courts. This home is located minutes to Lake San Marcos dining and golf as well as local Carlsbad beaches, shopping, and restaurants.

19. 2026-03-20
    price $384,000 939-char remark

    Show marketing remark (939 chars)

    Wonderful two bedroom and two bath home in highly desired Palomar Estates West. The open floor plan and vaulted ceiling in the living room make this home feel very spacious. The remodeled kitchen has beautiful wood cabinets, an island with a bar top, and stainless steel appliances. The home has vinyl dual-pane windows and plantation shutters throughout the main living areas and bedrooms. Both bathrooms have been remodeled as well. Outside you have two porches to enjoy the wonderful San Marcos climate, a small yard, and some mature citrus trees. A shed gives you extra space to store your items. Palomar Estates West is a 5 star 55+/35+ senior rent controlled park with many activities and amenities including a beautiful clubhouse, heated pool, spa, gym, putting green, pickleball courts, and tennis courts. This home is located minutes to Lake San Marcos dining and golf as well as local Carlsbad beaches, shopping, and restaurants.

20. 2026-02-23
    listed $399,000 Active 939-char remark

    Show marketing remark (939 chars)

    Wonderful two bedroom and two bath home in highly desired Palomar Estates West. The open floor plan and vaulted ceiling in the living room make this home feel very spacious. The remodeled kitchen has beautiful wood cabinets, an island with a bar top, and stainless steel appliances. The home has vinyl dual-pane windows and plantation shutters throughout the main living areas and bedrooms. Both bathrooms have been remodeled as well. Outside you have two porches to enjoy the wonderful San Marcos climate, a small yard, and some mature citrus trees. A shed gives you extra space to store your items. Palomar Estates West is a 5 star 55+/35+ senior rent controlled park with many activities and amenities including a beautiful clubhouse, heated pool, spa, gym, putting green, pickleball courts, and tennis courts. This home is located minutes to Lake San Marcos dining and golf as well as local Carlsbad beaches, shopping, and restaurants.

21. 2018-05-19
    historical
22. 2018-05-19
    historical
23. 2018-04-11
    price $199,000
24. 2018-03-16
    listed $199,000
25. 2018-03-16
    listed $219,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,293
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,223
• − Management: −$3,223
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $2,419
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$581
• After-tax cash flow: $6,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634880
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,752
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #3093
• State rank: #249 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #3074

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 100,940
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 53,605
• Household income: $120,268
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1594.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 17% Asian 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -351.55%
• Current HPI: 358.3294
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+55.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $309,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $339,000 CRMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $349,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $384,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $399,000 CRMLS
• 2018-05-19 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2018-05-19 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2018-04-11 Price Changed $199,000 SDMLS
• 2018-03-16 Listed $219,000 SDMLS
• 2018-03-16 Listed $199,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2013): $540 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.