15671 Oak Dr · Montgomery, TX 77356

$245,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,820 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $135/sqft · 13% above area Est $217k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**Great opportunity for a 'turnkey' rental asset. Tenant Occupied** Welcome to this beautiful house in the Hidden Forest Subdivision. This house furnishes 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms and offers plenty of natural light in all living areas, spacious kitchen with granite countertops and large island, stainless steel appliances, and plenty of cabinets. Vinyl plank floor in common areas and carpet in all bedrooms. There are recessed energy star lights in the entire house. There is easy access to TX-249.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Natural light
• Large island

Tags

• HIDDEN FOREST SUBDIVISION
• NATURAL LIGHT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($754/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,279 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.10%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,320
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: 12.74%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15882 Sycamore Dr	0.27mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,986 (+9%)	7mo	$244,900	$123	59
15898 Chestnut Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,724 (-5%)	11mo	$175,000	$102	49
15711 Cottonwood	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,554 (-15%)	14mo	$216,900	$140	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-42,177
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-56,610
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,223 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $232	-5% $148	+0% $63	+5% $-22	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-113	-5% $-25	+0% $63	+5% $151	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $125	base $63	+0.5pp $-1	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $245,000 Active 504-char remark

    Show marketing remark (504 chars)

    **Great opportunity for a 'turnkey' rental asset. Tenant Occupied** Welcome to this beautiful house in the Hidden Forest Subdivision. This house furnishes 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms and offers plenty of natural light in all living areas, spacious kitchen with granite countertops and large island, stainless steel appliances, and plenty of cabinets. Vinyl plank floor in common areas and carpet in all bedrooms. There are recessed energy star lights in the entire house. There is easy access to TX-249.

17. 2025-05-08
    historical $1,800
18. 2025-03-19
    listed $1,800
19. 2024-04-15
    historical $1,750
20. 2024-04-06
    listed $1,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,134
• − Management: −$2,134
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$3,345
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$803
• After-tax cash flow: $1,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Hidden Forest Subdivision is ready for immediate occupancy and rental. It offers a spacious layout with modern finishes and ample natural light.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrading light fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+13900.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2024-04-15 Rental Removed $1,750 HARMLS
• 2024-04-06 Listed for Rent $1,750 HARMLS