31 3rd St · Savanna, IL 61074

$137,500

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,386 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1898 6,098 sqft lot $58/sqft · 37% above area Est $101k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and spacious, this 4-bedroom, 2 full bath home is full of character! Featuring a stunning open staircase, formal dining room, office and natural woodwork. The flexible layout with a spacious living room, and a full bathroom on each level this family home offers a perfect blend of space, charm, and functionality- don't miss this one. Note: 4th bedroom currently being used as a laundry room. Laundry hook ups still available in the basement.

Key facts

• Natural woodwork
• Open staircase
• Formal dining room

Tags

• OPEN STAIRCASE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• NATURAL WOODWORK
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $129k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 6.4% in Savanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#684 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• West Carroll CUSD 314 (rural): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #498 of 620 in IL (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Carroll Primary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,278 of 2,056 statewide, top 65%, 416 students, 0% FRL); West Carroll Middle School (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #460 of 665 statewide, top 72%, 193 students, 0% FRL); West Carroll High School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #462 of 693 statewide, top 68%, 286 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Carroll County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $138k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,249 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,603
• List price: $137,500
• Delta: 36.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
516 N 4th St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,102 (-12%)	19mo	$145,000	$69	44
516 N 4th St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,102 (-12%)	19mo	$145,000	$69	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,746
• Equity at exit: $20,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $14,182
• Equity at exit: $11,888

Cash invested: $38,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61074

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,503 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,987/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,195

Max offer price $137,500

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $321	-5% $283	+0% $244	+5% $205	+10% $166
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $184	+0% $244	+5% $303	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $313	-0.5pp $279	base $244	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,375
• Closing costs: $4,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $137,500 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $137,500 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $137,500 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,500 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,500 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,500 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,500 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,500 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $137,500 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $137,500 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    price $137,500 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $144,900 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 57 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,900 Active 56 DOM
19. 2026-05-05
    price $144,900 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Charming and spacious, this 4-bedroom, 2 full bath home is full of character! Featuring a stunning open staircase, formal dining room, office and natural woodwork. The flexible layout with a spacious living room, and a full bathroom on each level this family home offers a perfect blend of space, charm, and functionality- don't miss this one. Note: 4th bedroom currently being used as a laundry room. Laundry hook ups still available in the basement.

20. 2026-04-05
    listed $149,900 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    Charming and spacious, this 4-bedroom, 2 full bath home is full of character! Featuring a stunning open staircase, formal dining room, office and natural woodwork. The flexible layout with a spacious living room, and a full bathroom on each level this family home offers a perfect blend of space, charm, and functionality- don't miss this one. Note: 4th bedroom currently being used as a laundry room. Laundry hook ups still available in the basement.

21. 2022-10-06
    historical
22. 2021-08-06
    historical
23. 2021-08-06
    historical
24. 2021-08-06
    historical
25. 2016-08-30
    soldstatus $55,000
26. 2016-08-30
    soldstatus $55,000
27. 2016-08-30
    soldstatus $55,000
28. 2016-03-06
    listed $59,900
29. 2016-03-06
    listed $59,900
30. 2011-09-09
    historical
31. 1991-07-08
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,987 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,554 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$567/yr (+$47/mo · 28.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,702
• − Property taxes: −$1,987
• − Insurance: −$688
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,443
• − Management: −$1,443
• − Depreciation: −$4,000
• Taxable income: $776
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$186
• After-tax cash flow: $2,737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Carroll CUSD 314
• NCES district ID: 1700310
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,090
• Composite: 13.91/100
• National rank: #9483
• State rank: #498 of 620 in IL

Livability — Savanna

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #684
• US rank: #13971

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Savanna, IL
• Population (ZIP): 4,009

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,010 people
• By 2030: 12,150 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 10,462 · -19.6%
• By 2050: 9,078 · -30.2%
• By 2075: 6,704 · -48.5%
• By 2100: 5,004 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.2% · R 64.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+29.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: D+1.4 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.68%
• Current HPI: 144.9327
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+436.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $144,900 NWIAR
• 2026-04-05 Listed $149,900 NWIAR
• 2022-10-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-30 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-30 Sold (MLS) $55,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-06 Listed $59,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-06 Listed $59,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-09 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,987 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.