3595 Gumlog Rd · Gumlog, GA 30557

$89,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 359 Days on market

Built 1969 2.01 ac lot ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover this delightful A Frame home featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, ideally situated on flatland near the scenic shores of Lake Hartwell. Enjoy endless fishing, boating, and water activities just moments from your doorsteps. Conveniently located close to Hwy 123 & Interstate 85, this property offers easy access to Lavonia and Toccoa for antiquing, brewers, shopping and dining. Outdoor enthusiasts will love the proximity to Lavonia Speedway, while shoppers will enjoy a quick trip to Commerce Outlets for additional shopping sprees. State Park just a few miles down the road. * * * * HOME IS BEING SOLD "AS IS". HOME CAN BE SHOWN AT THIS TIME, DUE TO BEING IN PROBATE IT

Key facts

• Boating
• Easy access
• Endless fishing

Tags

• SCENIC SHORES
• ENDLESS FISHING
• BOATING
• WATER ACTIVITIES
• EASY ACCESS
• PROXIMITY TO LAVONIA SPEEDWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $435 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.7% in Gumlog — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#185 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stephens County (rural): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #74 of 174 in GA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (567 students, 75% FRL); Stephens County Middle School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #243 of 470 statewide, top 53%, 860 students, 75% FRL); Stephens County High School (math 18% / reading 34%, grade F, #175 of 424 statewide, top 42%, 1,142 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Stephens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 359 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (46%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 359 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.75%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $76,703
• Equity at exit: $80,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.11×
• Total profit: $204,119
• Equity at exit: $174,656

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30557

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $435

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $497	-5% $466	+0% $435	+5% $404	+10% $373
Rent	-10% $330	-5% $382	+0% $435	+5% $488	+10% $541
Rate	-1.0pp $481	-0.5pp $458	base $435	+0.5pp $412	+1.0pp $388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $89,900 Active 359 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 357 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 356 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 355 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 354 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 353 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 351 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 350 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 347 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    remarks 685-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    statusdays on market $89,900 Active 346 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Back On Market 345 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $89,900 Back On Market 344 DOM
14. 2026-01-23
    status Pending Offer Approval
15. 2025-11-10
    status Back On Market
16. 2025-10-30
    status Under Contract
17. 2025-10-22
    price $89,900
18. 2025-08-28
    price $115,000
19. 2025-08-03
    price $139,999
20. 2025-05-07
    price $145,000
21. 2025-03-03
    price $159,900
22. 2025-02-02
    listed $165,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,049
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $4,032
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$968
• After-tax cash flow: $4,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stephens County
• NCES district ID: 1304560
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,416
• Composite: 28.42/100
• National rank: #6759
• State rank: #74 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gumlog

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #11633

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,905

Population outlook (Stephens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,797 people
• By 2030: 22,785 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 20,653 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 18,745 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 14,780 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 11,079 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 8% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stephens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.4% · R 81.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+58.7 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+53.7 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.48%
• Current HPI: 350.6536
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-45.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-11-10 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-10-30 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $89,900 GAMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $115,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $139,999 GAMLS
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $145,000 GAMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $159,900 GAMLS
• 2025-02-02 Listed $165,000 GAMLS