1919 Olde Middle Gulf Dr #106 · Sanibel, FL 33957

$829,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · Condo public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1979 $1500/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Top Floor Corner Unit with excellent rental income! Featuring 2 bedrooms 2 bathrooms Beach Front Sandpiper Beach! Hidden in the back of Olde Middle Gulf Dr. Complete privacy with incredible top floor views of the beach & Gulf of America nestled amongst the preserve in the back. With over $65,000 in rental income for 2025!!! Heated Swimming Pool Tennis court, Shuffle board & BBQ grills for all your outside grilling. Enjoy your private board walks to the beach! Completely updated and a favorite rental in the Royal Shell weekly Rental program.

Key facts

• Private board walks
• Tennis court
• Beach front

Tags

• BEACH FRONT
• TOP FLOOR VIEWS
• HEATED SWIMMING POOL
• TENNIS COURT
• PRIVATE BOARD WALKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed conditionally (call); maximum 2 pets, maximum weight 40 lbs
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee ($1,500); HOA fee includes insurance, legal/accounting, grounds maintenance, pest control, trash and water; Association amenities include beach rights and access, bike storage, barbecue, picnic area, pool, shuffleboard court, tennis courts and management; Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Attached carport with 2 spaces; Assigned, covered and underground parking available; One assigned space option; Total covered spaces: 4
• Security: Smoke detector(s); Security/high impact doors
• Utilities: Cable available; Sewer assessment paid; Water assessment paid; Municipal irrigation
• Home design: Condominium/attached property; 2 stories total; Entry level: 2; Faces north; Resale property
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as part of an 18-unit community
• Exterior features: Security/high impact doors; Sprinkler/irrigation system (municipal source); Outdoor grill; Tennis court(s); Balcony; Lanai; Porch (screened); Private waterfront on the Gulf; South exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Entry level: 2
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Impact glass windows with window coverings; Furnished; Breakfast bar; Living/dining room; Window treatments; Split bedrooms; Screened porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Dryer hookup inside; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $829k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($29k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($12k rent vs $829k).
• Recommended offer: $730k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.8% in Sanibel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: The Sanibel School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #5 of 2,144 statewide, top 0%, 289 students, 12% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 57% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 526 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $232k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($730k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $635k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $729,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.54%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $18,574
• Equity at exit: $123,607

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $215,523
• Equity at exit: $71,677

Cash invested: $232,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33957

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,347
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,144/yr
• Insurance: −$345
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,500
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,464
• Net cashflow: $2,387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,711

Max offer price $829,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,856	-5% $2,622	+0% $2,387	+5% $2,152	+10% $1,918
Rent	-10% $1,460	-5% $1,923	+0% $2,387	+5% $2,850	+10% $3,314
Rate	-1.0pp $2,804	-0.5pp $2,598	base $2,387	+0.5pp $2,172	+1.0pp $1,954

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $207,250
• Closing costs: $24,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1992 Roseate Ln Unit 414 Sanibel, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	4d	1	0.70mi
2445 W Gulf Dr Unit 32E Sanibel, FL	2.0	2.0	1243	$18,000	$14.48	25d	1	0.98mi
2445 W Gulf Dr Unit 47B Sanibel, FL	2.0	2.0	1243	$20,000	$16.09	25d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $1,500 · $18,000/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-11
   price $829,000
3. 2025-11-12
   listed $848,000 Active
4. 2013-01-02
   soldstatus $635,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,144 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,881 · $573/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,737/yr (+$311/mo · 118.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $140,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,437
• − Property taxes: −$3,144
• − Insurance: −$9,264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,263
• − Management: −$11,263
• − HOA: −$18,000
• − Depreciation: −$24,116
• Taxable income: $17,297
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,151
• After-tax cash flow: $24,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanibel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #541
• US rank: #10166

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sanibel, FL
• City population: 6,402
• Population (ZIP): 6,402

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.08%
• Current HPI: 501.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+30.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $829,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $848,000 FORTMLS
• 2013-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $635,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,144 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.