257 Manitoba Grn · Fremont, CA 94538

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 244 Days on market

Built 1972 Fair condition $141/sqft · 30% below area Est $270k · 30% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bed, 2 Bath Mobile Home – Fremont Spacious mobile home in family-friendly Southlake Mobile Estates, within the Irvington school district. Low space rent of $1,240/month includes water, sewer, trash, and access to clubhouse, pools, spa, sauna, and more! Close to 880/680 freeways, Pacific Commons, and Tesla. Bring your tools and imagination – tons of potential!

Key facts

• Low space rent
• Access to pools
• Access to spa

Tags

• IRVINGTON SCHOOL DISTRICT
• LOW SPACE RENT
• ACCESS TO CLUBHOUSE
• ACCESS TO POOLS
• ACCESS TO SPA
• ACCESS TO SAUNA

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $189,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$270,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 1.2% in Fremont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#10 in CA, #561 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fremont Unified (suburban): math 76% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #23 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harvey Green Elementary (435 students, 31% FRL); John M. Horner Middle (1,562 students, 17% FRL); Irvington High (math 80% / reading 88%, grade A, #32 of 1,170 statewide, top 3%, 2,207 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($147k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 244 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $33k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 244 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.39%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,000
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -30.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
287 Winnipeg Ter	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (0%)	17mo	$240,800	$179	84
262 Manitoba Grn #262	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$300,000	$208	78
126 Fisk Ter	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$225,000	$156	77
265 winnipeg Ter #265	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	15mo	$288,888	$201	74
328 Winnipeg Grn	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	10mo	$245,000	$170	72
48 Eagle Grn	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (+0%)	6mo	$160,000	$119	70
285 Winnipeg Ter	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	21mo	$188,000	$131	68
319 Winnipeg Grn	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+14%)	4mo	$270,000	$176	64
58 Delta Ter	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	7mo	$238,000	$165	61
35 Eagle Grn	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$230,000	$160	60
43 Eagle Grn	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	20mo	$300,000	$214	58
275 Winnipeg Ter	0.03mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,536 (+14%)	15mo	$275,000	$179	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $87,012
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.37×
• Total profit: $231,167
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94538

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,964 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$832
• Net cashflow: $1,825

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,956	-5% $1,891	+0% $1,825	+5% $1,760	+10% $1,695
Rent	-10% $1,512	-5% $1,669	+0% $1,825	+5% $1,982	+10% $2,139
Rate	-1.0pp $1,921	-0.5pp $1,873	base $1,825	+0.5pp $1,776	+1.0pp $1,727

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4530 Doane St Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$3,950	$3.66	45d	1	0.35mi
42854 Parkwood St Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,295	$3.07	7d	1	0.49mi
42855 Hamilton Way Fremont, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$2,750	$2.75	45d	1	0.50mi
42838 Homewood St Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1180	$4,000	$3.39	45d	1	0.50mi
43308 Grimmer Blvd Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$2,800	$3.04	1d	1	0.54mi
42645 Newport Dr Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1151	$4,400	$3.82	45d	1	0.66mi
42645 Newport Dr Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1151	$4,400	$3.82	26d	1	0.66mi
42740 Jefferson St Fremont, CA	4.0	2.0	1500	$4,495	$3.00	1d	1	0.72mi
4788 Valpey Park Ct Fremont, CA	4.0	2.0	1683	$2,500	$1.49	45d	1	0.81mi
41903 Cerchio Ter #1574 Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1425	$4,160	$2.92	18d	1	0.84mi
44762 Old Warm Springs Blvd Fremont, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$5,155	$5.37	0d	20	0.84mi
41777 Grimmer Blvd Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0	935	$3,065	$3.28	19d	1	1.01mi
42111 Osgood Rd #401 Fremont, CA	2.0	2.0	1052	$3,875	$3.68	45d	1	1.02mi
3301 Innovation Way Fremont, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	963	$5,025	$5.22	0d	18	1.05mi
45147 Lopes Rd Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	919	$4,551	$4.95	3d	14	1.09mi
45128 Warm Springs Blvd #330 Fremont, CA	2.0	2.0	1295	$3,980	$3.07	26d	1	1.24mi
41240 Roberts Ave Fremont, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1267	$4,183	$3.30	0d	4	1.25mi
1802 Ponca Ct Fremont, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$4,200	$3.50	22d	1	1.40mi
40622 Blacow Rd Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1148	$3,500	$3.05	26d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $189,000 Pending 244 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $189,000 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,000 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $189,000 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-05-09
   price $189,000 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   3 Bed, 2 Bath Mobile Home – Fremont Spacious mobile home in family-friendly Southlake Mobile Estates, within the Irvington school district. Low space rent of $1,240/month includes water, sewer, trash, and access to clubhouse, pools, spa, sauna, and more! Close to 880/680 freeways, Pacific Commons, and Tesla. Bring your tools and imagination – tons of potential!

8. 2026-05-09
   status Active 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   3 Bed, 2 Bath Mobile Home – Fremont Spacious mobile home in family-friendly Southlake Mobile Estates, within the Irvington school district. Low space rent of $1,240/month includes water, sewer, trash, and access to clubhouse, pools, spa, sauna, and more! Close to 880/680 freeways, Pacific Commons, and Tesla. Bring your tools and imagination – tons of potential!

9. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (375 chars)

   3 Bed, 2 Bath Mobile Home – Fremont Spacious mobile home in family-friendly Southlake Mobile Estates, within the Irvington school district. Low space rent of $1,240/month includes water, sewer, trash, and access to clubhouse, pools, spa, sauna, and more! Close to 880/680 freeways, Pacific Commons, and Tesla. Bring your tools and imagination – tons of potential!

10. 2026-04-15
    price $209,000 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    3 Bed, 2 Bath Mobile Home – Fremont Spacious mobile home in family-friendly Southlake Mobile Estates, within the Irvington school district. Low space rent of $1,240/month includes water, sewer, trash, and access to clubhouse, pools, spa, sauna, and more! Close to 880/680 freeways, Pacific Commons, and Tesla. Bring your tools and imagination – tons of potential!

11. 2025-10-21
    price $214,000 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    3 Bed, 2 Bath Mobile Home – Fremont Spacious mobile home in family-friendly Southlake Mobile Estates, within the Irvington school district. Low space rent of $1,240/month includes water, sewer, trash, and access to clubhouse, pools, spa, sauna, and more! Close to 880/680 freeways, Pacific Commons, and Tesla. Bring your tools and imagination – tons of potential!

12. 2025-10-01
    listed $222,000 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    3 Bed, 2 Bath Mobile Home – Fremont Spacious mobile home in family-friendly Southlake Mobile Estates, within the Irvington school district. Low space rent of $1,240/month includes water, sewer, trash, and access to clubhouse, pools, spa, sauna, and more! Close to 880/680 freeways, Pacific Commons, and Tesla. Bring your tools and imagination – tons of potential!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,805
• − Management: −$3,805
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $20,091
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,822
• After-tax cash flow: $17,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs to its exterior and interior, but is otherwise in good condition. Painting the exterior and interior walls would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Severe weathering and peeling
• Major exterior paint — Significant wear and peeling
• Major interior walls — Visible wear and tear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both paint interior walls — Improves interior appearance and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Severe weathering and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Significant wear and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — Improves interior appearance and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fremont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614400
• Math proficiency: 76% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $105,489
• Composite: 72.94/100
• National rank: #191
• State rank: #23 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fremont

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #561

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fremont, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 228,297
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 67,781
• Household income: $147,301
• Rent vs Own: 55.3% rent · 44.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2445.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 56% Hispanic / Latino 20% White 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 50% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Other Indo-European 21% Spanish 14% Chinese 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1249.13%
• Current HPI: 399.7533
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.33%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $189,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-09 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-07 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $209,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $214,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $222,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR