1015 Varland Ave · Toledo, OH
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $713 – $1,323
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 100°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 16 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +27.8/30.0
- DSCR +9.8/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- 1% rule +7.2/10.0
- Rent growth +3.8/5.0
- Livability +3.3/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.6/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$89,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Don't miss your chance. Nice 3 bedroom home for the money cheaper then renting. This home is rented now mo to mo for $650.mo tenant pays all utilities and would like to stay. Privacy fenced in back yard. Across from the park, close to bus line , & community center. Please give good notice for showings. Furnace & HWT about 10yrs Roof and windows 12 yrs No showings after 5:00pm
Key facts
- Immediate cash flow
- Currently leased
- 3,400 sq ft lot
Tags
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: On-street parking (1 total)
- Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public water; Sanitary sewer connected
- Home design: Single-family house; One and one-half levels; No shared/common walls
- Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built year from public records
- Exterior features: Front porch; Partial wood fencing; Corner lot
Interior
- Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator
- Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the upper level; Two additional bedrooms on the upper level
- Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
- Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
- Interior features: 6 total rooms; Other interior features; Partial, unfinished basement
- Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup on main level
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
- Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
- Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: East Broadway Elementary School (math 4% / reading 11%, grade F, #1,518 of 1,584 statewide, top 96%, 411 students, 0% FRL); Waite High School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #687 of 781 statewide, top 88%, 997 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 72% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $28k; list at $90k implies a 221% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.22% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.96%
- Cash-on-cash
- 13.08%
- DSCR
- 1.58
- GRM
- 6.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $52,906
- List price
- $89,900
- Delta
- 69.92%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 937 Berry St | 0.18mi | 3/1.0 | 1,282 (-4%) | 3mo | $63,000 | $49 | 82 |
| 1207 E Broadway St | 0.18mi | 3/1.0 | 1,400 (+4%) | 7mo | $102,000 | $73 | 79 |
| 1308 Halstead St | 0.21mi | 3/1.0 | 1,246 (-7%) | 6mo | $40,050 | $32 | 74 |
| 1129 Camden St | 0.30mi | 3/1.0 | 1,260 (-6%) | 4mo | $55,000 | $44 | 73 |
| 1127 Varland Ave | 0.08mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 1,227 (-8%) | 5mo | $28,050 | $23 | 73 |
| 847 Mckinley Ave | 0.46mi | 3/1.0 | 1,412 (+5%) | 7mo | $110,000 | $78 | 64 |
| 1230 Hirzel St | 0.23mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,496 (+12%) | 3mo | $140,000 | $94 | 58 |
| 1122 Vinal St | 0.39mi | 4/1.0 (+1) | 1,180 (-12%) | 1mo | $123,400 | $105 | 56 |
| 833 Kingston Ave | 0.53mi | 3/1.0 | 1,202 (-10%) | 3mo | $140,000 | $116 | 56 |
| 715 Raymer Blvd | 0.52mi | 3/2.0 | 1,481 (+10%) | 3mo | $71,500 | $48 | 52 |
| 1537 Akron St | 0.74mi | 3/2.0 | 1,188 (-11%) | 3mo | $131,500 | $111 | 40 |
| 1439 Holmes St | 0.66mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,506 (+12%) | 7mo | $152,000 | $101 | 34 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 5.6%
- Equity multiple
- 1.22×
- Total profit
- $5,594
- Equity at exit
- $13,404
- IRR
- 17.0%
- Equity multiple
- 2.55×
- Total profit
- $38,936
- Equity at exit
- $7,773
Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 73 Landlord-Friendly
- State Ohio
- 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 43605
- Home prices YoY
- -25.6%
- Rents YoY
- 5.4%
- Active inventory
- 117
- Price-to-rent
- 6.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,099 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$471
- Tax from tax record
- −$85 /mo · $1,022/yr
- Insurance
- −$37
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$231
- Net cashflow
- $274
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $22,475
- Closing costs
- $2,697
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 30 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 921 Berry St Toledo, OH | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1204 | $1,350 | $1.12 | 14d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 908 Forsythe St Unit Downstairs Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1164 | $950 | $0.82 | 43d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 908 Forsythe St Unit Upstairs Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1164 | $900 | $0.77 | 14d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 606 Earl St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1700 | $1,150 | $0.68 | 21d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 1106 White St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1200 | $1,015 | $0.85 | 14d | 1 | 0.27mi |
| 948 White St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1024 | $1,135 | $1.11 | 14d | 1 | 0.34mi |
| 946 Butler St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 944 | $650 | $0.69 | 43d | 1 | 0.38mi |
| 1505 Navarre Ave Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1331 | $1,145 | $0.86 | 43d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 834 Oak St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1064 | $900 | $0.85 | 43d | 1 | 0.61mi |
| 1537 Remington St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1064 | $1,095 | $1.03 | 43d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 1614 Nevada St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1172 | $1,000 | $0.85 | 21d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 537 Potter St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1200 | $625 | $0.52 | 23d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 29 Garfield Pl Toledo, OH | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1300 | $1,250 | $0.96 | 14d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 653 Oswald St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 920 | $800 | $0.87 | 43d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 732 Coyne Ave Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 968 | $1,145 | $1.18 | 14d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 722 Coyne Ave Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,000 | $1.11 | 14d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 420 Platt St Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1499 | $685 | $0.46 | 21d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 2129 Nevada St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1352 | $1,200 | $0.89 | 14d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 20 Greenwood Ave Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1496 | $1,150 | $0.77 | 14d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 414 Platt St Unit ST-3 Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1500 | $1,150 | $0.77 | 23d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 245 Plymouth St Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1600 | $1,125 | $0.70 | 14d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 470 2nd St Unit 1 Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 950 | $799 | $0.84 | 43d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 2074 Starr Ave Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1115 | $1,025 | $0.92 | 23d | 1 | 1.16mi |
| 223 Valleywood Dr Toledo, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1098 | $1,099 | $1.00 | 23d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 2337 Burnside Ave Oregon, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1025 | $1,150 | $1.12 | 14d | 1 | 1.39mi |
| 1306 Mott Ave Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1282 | $1,149 | $0.90 | 43d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 1305 Mott Ave Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1080 | $1,000 | $0.93 | 43d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 2401 Burnside Ave Oregon, OH | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1025 | $1,150 | $1.12 | 14d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 221 Licking St Unit 2 Toledo, OH | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1048 | $1,099 | $1.05 | 23d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 625 Riverside Dr Toledo, OH | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 860 | $1,767 | $2.05 | 14d | 37 | 1.50mi |
Listing history 27 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $89,900 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $89,900 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $89,900 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $89,900 Active 47 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $89,900 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $89,900 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $89,900 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $89,900 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $89,900 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $89,900 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $89,900 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $89,900 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $89,900 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $89,900 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $89,900 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-04-01$89,900 Active 283-char remark
-
2025-10-14price $28,000 386-char remark
Show marketing remark (386 chars)
Don't miss your chance. Nice 3 bedroom home for the money cheaper then renting. This home is rented now mo to mo for $650.mo tenant pays all utilities and would like to stay. Privacy fenced in back yard. Across from the park, close to bus line , & community center. Please give good notice for showings. Furnace & HWT about 10yrs Roof and windows 12 yrs No showings after 5:00pm
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2024-02-05historical $995
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2024-01-31price $995
-
2024-01-21$1,095
-
2021-07-29status Pending 386-char remark
Show marketing remark (386 chars)
Don't miss your chance. Nice 3 bedroom home for the money cheaper then renting. This home is rented now mo to mo for $650.mo tenant pays all utilities and would like to stay. Privacy fenced in back yard. Across from the park, close to bus line , & community center. Please give good notice for showings. Furnace & HWT about 10yrs Roof and windows 12 yrs No showings after 5:00pm
-
2021-07-29soldstatus $28,000 Closed 386-char remark
Show marketing remark (386 chars)
Don't miss your chance. Nice 3 bedroom home for the money cheaper then renting. This home is rented now mo to mo for $650.mo tenant pays all utilities and would like to stay. Privacy fenced in back yard. Across from the park, close to bus line , & community center. Please give good notice for showings. Furnace & HWT about 10yrs Roof and windows 12 yrs No showings after 5:00pm
-
2021-07-20Contingent 386-char remark
Show marketing remark (386 chars)
Don't miss your chance. Nice 3 bedroom home for the money cheaper then renting. This home is rented now mo to mo for $650.mo tenant pays all utilities and would like to stay. Privacy fenced in back yard. Across from the park, close to bus line , & community center. Please give good notice for showings. Furnace & HWT about 10yrs Roof and windows 12 yrs No showings after 5:00pm
-
2021-06-19$32,500 386-char remark
Show marketing remark (386 chars)
Don't miss your chance. Nice 3 bedroom home for the money cheaper then renting. This home is rented now mo to mo for $650.mo tenant pays all utilities and would like to stay. Privacy fenced in back yard. Across from the park, close to bus line , & community center. Please give good notice for showings. Furnace & HWT about 10yrs Roof and windows 12 yrs No showings after 5:00pm
-
1993-12-09soldstatus $11,280
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1989-06-23soldstatus $18,737
-
1975-10-07soldstatus $17,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,022 · $85/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,212 · $101/mo
- Expected delta
- +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 18.6%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $13,193
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,036
- − Property taxes
- −$1,022
- − Insurance
- −$450
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,055
- − Management
- −$1,055
- − Depreciation
- −$2,615
- Taxable income
- $1,959
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$470
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,823/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Toledo City
- NCES district ID
- 3904490
- Math proficiency
- 15% ▼ -16.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 24% ▼ -13.00%
- Median HH income
- $32,137
- Composite
- 15.76/100
- National rank
- #9276
- State rank
- #634 of 656 in OH
Livability — Toledo
- Score
- 66/100
- State rank
- #645
- US rank
- #11442
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Toledo, OH
- County
- Lucas County · 380,724 people
- City population
- 280,811
- Metro
- Toledo, OH
- Population (ZIP)
- 24,441
- Household income
- $39,118
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1257.0
Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 420,751 people
- By 2030
- 410,187 · -2.5%
- By 2040
- 384,019 · -8.7%
- By 2050
- 355,125 · -15.6%
- By 2075
- 291,683 · -30.7%
- By 2100
- 233,670 · -44.5%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 57% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 14% Two or more races 14%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Lucas
- 2024 margin
- D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -47.85%
- Current HPI
- 138.6894
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 5.37%
- Metro
- Toledo, OH
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.98%
- F500 in state
- 48
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 3 | $145B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $49B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 3 | $24B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 2 | $93B |
|
||
| Aerospace / Defense | 2 | $47B |
|
||
| Utilities | 2 | $33B |
|
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Price history
+428.8% since first listed12 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-01 Listed $89,900 NORIS
- 2025-10-14 Price Changed $28,000 NORIS
- 2024-02-05 Rental Removed $995 APPFOLIO
- 2024-01-31 Price Changed $995 APPFOLIO
- 2024-01-21 Listed for Rent $1,095 APPFOLIO
- 2021-07-29 Pending — NORIS
- 2021-07-29 Sold (MLS) $28,000 NORIS
- 2021-07-20 Listed — NORIS
- 2021-06-19 Listed $32,500 NORIS
- 1993-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $11,280 Public Records
- 1989-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $18,737 Public Records
- 1975-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+3.0%/yrLatest (2025): $1,022 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…