1655 S Elm St #428 · Canby, OR 97013

$149,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Condo · 11 Days on market

Built 1997 ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4Br/2Ba + family room, 1 year old heatpump, French doors to kitchen, slider to back yard, extra large parking pad adjacent to driveway. Newer paint inside and out, big fenced yard with dog run, kitchen has walk in pantry and skylight. Very pet friendly family community. Financing is available.

Key facts

• Full detached garage
• Laundry utility room
• Backyard is fenced

Tags

• FULL DETACHED GARAGE
• LARGE ENTERTAINING KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY UTILITY ROOM
• BACKYARD IS FENCED
• ACCESS TO CANBY COMMUNITY PARK
• ACCESS TO MOLLALA RIVER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, manufactured home in park; Main level area reported as 1,512; Lot size reported in the 0–2,999 sq ft range
• Financial info: Land lease: yes (monthly lot rent)
• HOA & community: Community amenities include commons, management, and road maintenance; Park name: Village on the Lochs; Land lease in effect (land lease expiration December 31, 2026); Lot rent charged monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Detached 2-car garage
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service and electric hot water; Cable internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park (not attached); Single-story (one level); Built in 1997; Manufacturer: Golden Eagle; Main level living; No notable view
• Construction: Block foundation; T-111 exterior siding; Year built: 1997
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Basketball court; Yard; T-111 siding; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator; Pantry; Skylight in kitchen; Vaulted ceiling in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom suite with vaulted ceiling and wall-to-wall carpet (main level); Second bedroom with vaulted ceiling, ceiling fan, and wall-to-wall carpet (main level); Third bedroom with vaulted ceiling and wall-to-wall carpet (main level); Fourth bedroom with vaulted ceiling and wall-to-wall carpet (main level)
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood; Vinyl flooring in family room, kitchen, and living areas; Wall-to-wall carpet in bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Heat pump cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Engineered hardwood flooring in areas; Skylights; Garage door opener; Double pane windows with vinyl frames; Accessible main-floor bedroom with full bath; Natural lighting; One-level living; Crawl space foundation
• Laundry & utility: Utility room with exterior entry (main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-51 ($-608/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.1% in Canby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#43 in OR, #1,056 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Canby SD 86 (town): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #14 of 58 in OR (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Philander Lee Elementary School (math 10% / reading 44%, grade F, #288 of 412 statewide, top 73%, 316 students, 37% FRL); Baker Prairie Middle School (math 42% / reading 54%, grade C-, #30 of 128 statewide, top 23%, 557 students, 33% FRL); Canby High School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A-, #2 of 143 statewide, top 6%, 1,393 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.

Recommended offer $149,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.45%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-29,627
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-38,389
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97013

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,491 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,136/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$1,075
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,555

Max offer price $140,950

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $34	-5% $-8	+0% $-51	+5% $-93	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-247	-5% $-149	+0% $-51	+5% $48	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-13	base $-51	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
267 N Aspen St Canby, OR	3.0	2.5	1252	$2,100	$1.68	21d	1	0.66mi
259 N Cedar St Canby, OR	3.0	2.5	1453	$2,399	$1.65	9d	1	0.70mi
190 SE 3rd Ave Canby, OR	3.0	2.0	1196	$2,450	$2.05	45d	1	0.89mi
700 SE 5th Ave Canby, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,840	$1.73	3d	2	1.13mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 550-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $149,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,136 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$318/yr (+$26/mo · 28.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,136
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,391
• − Management: −$2,391
• − HOA: −$12,900
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$585
• After-tax cash flow: $-23/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canby SD 86
• NCES district ID: 4102640
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,246
• Composite: 36.24/100
• National rank: #4717
• State rank: #14 of 58 in OR

Livability — Canby

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1056

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canby, OR
• County: Clackamas County · 361,406 people
• City population: 24,293
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,293
• Household income: $101,832
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Clackamas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 458,456 people
• By 2030: 485,185 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 532,932 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 574,445 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 665,497 · +45.2%
• By 2100: 697,488 · +52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clackamas

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 53.4% · R 43.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 10.4pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+11.1 2016: D+6.1 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -427.87%
• Current HPI: 287.758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.89%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $149,900 RMLS
• 2023-09-22 Sold (MLS) $130,000 RMLS
• 2023-09-13 Pending — RMLS
• 2023-09-11 Relisted — RMLS
• 2023-09-09 Pending — RMLS
• 2023-09-05 Price Changed $149,000 RMLS
• 2023-08-25 Relisted — RMLS
• 2023-08-18 Pending — RMLS
• 2023-08-17 Listed $155,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,136 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.