Plan 2246 Plan · San Antonio, TX 78073

$234,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,246 sqft · SingleFamily · 306 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Functional U-shaped kitchen * Dedicated coat closet * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Paneled interior doors * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Den * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

Key facts

• U-shaped kitchen
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 306 days

Tags

• U-SHAPED KITCHEN
• DEDICATED COAT CLOSET
• GARDEN TUB SHOWER COMBINATION
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• PANELED INTERIOR DOORS
• WALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $234,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $253,277.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-323 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Ronald E Mcnair Middle (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 748 students, 77% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 306 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,693 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 306 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.46%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,277
• List price: $234,995
• Delta: -7.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13002 Jeopardy Ave	0.22mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,245 (-0%)	3mo	$258,754	$115	80
4835 Cocoon Xing	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,100 (-6%)	5mo	$253,143	$121	78
13003 Bone Dry Ln	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,100 (-6%)	4mo	$246,085	$117	71
4650 Broadside Ave	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,348 (+4%)	16mo	$282,084	$120	71
4607 Nightstar Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	2,100 (-6%)	18mo	$288,551	$137	69
4750 Broadside Ave	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,100 (-6%)	20mo	$278,753	$133	65
4815 Rio Ruidoso	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,559 (+14%)	2mo	$344,990	$135	58
4714 Broadside Ave	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,527 (+12%)	14mo	$258,960	$102	57
4634 Legacy Trl	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,015 (-10%)	4mo	$246,999	$123	48
4927 Legacy Trl	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,910 (-15%)	20mo	$273,999	$143	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,668
• Equity at exit: $108,238

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $52,218
• Equity at exit: $162,545

Cash invested: $70,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,328
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$317 /mo · $3,799/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,216

Max offer price $206,558

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-148	-5% $-235	+0% $-323	+5% $-410	+10% $-498
Rent	-10% $-466	-5% $-394	+0% $-323	+5% $-251	+10% $-180
Rate	-1.0pp $-195	-0.5pp $-258	base $-323	+0.5pp $-388	+1.0pp $-455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,319
• Closing costs: $7,598
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4750 Broadside Ave Von Ormy, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,845	$0.88	46d	1	0.19mi
4606 Legacy Trl Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,695	$1.02	6d	1	0.50mi
4839 Legacy Pt Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,795	$1.08	23d	1	0.54mi
11835 Adoring Way Von Ormy, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $234,995 Active 306 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $232,995 Active 303 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,995 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,995 Active 301 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,995 Active 300 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $232,995 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $232,995 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $232,995 Active 293 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $232,995 Active 292 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $232,995 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $232,995 Active 288 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $232,995 Active 287 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $232,995 Active 286 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $232,995 Active 285 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    price $232,995 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Dedicated coat closet * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Paneled interior doors * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Den * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

16. 2026-03-27
    price $230,995 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Dedicated coat closet * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Paneled interior doors * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Den * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

17. 2026-03-24
    price $240,995 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Dedicated coat closet * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Paneled interior doors * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Den * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

18. 2026-02-27
    price $242,995 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Dedicated coat closet * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Paneled interior doors * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Den * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

19. 2026-02-13
    price $235,995 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Dedicated coat closet * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Paneled interior doors * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Den * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

20. 2026-01-28
    price $231,995 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Dedicated coat closet * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Paneled interior doors * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Den * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

21. 2025-10-14
    price $236,995 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Dedicated coat closet * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Paneled interior doors * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Den * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

22. 2025-09-29
    price $231,995 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Dedicated coat closet * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Paneled interior doors * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Den * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

23. 2025-09-03
    price $229,995 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Dedicated coat closet * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Paneled interior doors * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Den * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

24. 2025-08-19
    listed $227,995 Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    * Functional U-shaped kitchen * Dedicated coat closet * 42-in. garden tub/shower combination at primary bath * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Paneled interior doors * Spacious great room * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Den * Loft * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Close to popular restaurants * Outdoor recreation nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,187
• − Property taxes: −$3,799
• − Insurance: −$1,266
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$7,368
• Taxable loss: −$8,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,018
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $232,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $230,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $240,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $242,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $235,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $231,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $236,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $231,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $229,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-19 Listed $227,995 Zillow