84537 12th St · Searles Valley, CA 93562

$118,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1953 10,019 sqft lot $124/sqft · 40% above area Est $84k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 3 bedroom home is situated on a huge lot & located on a nice pleasant street. Features include: Fresh paint, new windows, wonderful covered patio, large storage shed & separate workshop, RV parking & beautiful desert/mountain views. The open desert is your backyard & all yours for all you off-road riding enthusiasts. .only an hour to Death Valley & about 3.5 hours to Las Vegas. .. make an appointment ASAP to see what this home has to offer you & your family!

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Covered patio
• Huge lot

Tags

• HUGE LOT
• COVERED PATIO
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• SEPARATE WORKSHOP
• RV PARKING
• DESERT MOUNTAIN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $338 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#500 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Trona Joint Unified (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,004 of 1,400 in CA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($816 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $118k implies a 269% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.28%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,056
• List price: $118,000
• Delta: 40.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
84668 Searles St	0.24mi	3/1.0	950 (0%)	16mo	$95,000	$100	75
84565 9th St St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+7%)	13mo	$100,000	$98	73
84454 SEARLES St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	842 (-11%)	4mo	$79,500	$94	69
84432 8th St	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	843 (-11%)	23mo	$25,000	$30	46
13527 Cedar St	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,084 (+14%)	10mo	$79,000	$73	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $35,698
• Equity at exit: $53,058

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.93×
• Total profit: $96,868
• Equity at exit: $81,769

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93562

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,327 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $505/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $338

Break-even live

Break-even rent $899

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $405	-5% $371	+0% $338	+5% $305	+10% $271
Rent	-10% $233	-5% $286	+0% $338	+5% $390	+10% $443
Rate	-1.0pp $397	-0.5pp $368	base $338	+0.5pp $307	+1.0pp $276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $118,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $118,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $118,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $118,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $118,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $118,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    This spacious 3 bedroom home is situated on a huge lot & located on a nice pleasant street. Features include: Fresh paint, new windows, wonderful covered patio, large storage shed & separate workshop, RV parking & beautiful desert/mountain views. The open desert is your backyard & all yours for all you off-road riding enthusiasts. .only an hour to Death Valley & about 3.5 hours to Las Vegas. .. make an appointment ASAP to see what this home has to offer you & your family!

17. 2026-03-18
    price $128,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    This spacious 3 bedroom home is situated on a huge lot & located on a nice pleasant street. Features include: Fresh paint, new windows, wonderful covered patio, large storage shed & separate workshop, RV parking & beautiful desert/mountain views. The open desert is your backyard & all yours for all you off-road riding enthusiasts. .only an hour to Death Valley & about 3.5 hours to Las Vegas. .. make an appointment ASAP to see what this home has to offer you & your family!

18. 2026-01-26
    listed $145,000 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    This spacious 3 bedroom home is situated on a huge lot & located on a nice pleasant street. Features include: Fresh paint, new windows, wonderful covered patio, large storage shed & separate workshop, RV parking & beautiful desert/mountain views. The open desert is your backyard & all yours for all you off-road riding enthusiasts. .only an hour to Death Valley & about 3.5 hours to Las Vegas. .. make an appointment ASAP to see what this home has to offer you & your family!

19. 1987-12-28
    soldstatus $32,000
20. 1984-01-04
    soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $505 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $897 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$392/yr (+$33/mo · 77.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$505
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,274
• − Management: −$1,274
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $2,235
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$536
• After-tax cash flow: $3,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trona Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0639840
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,514
• Composite: 29.6/100
• National rank: #11751
• State rank: #1004 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Searles Valley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #500
• US rank: #16976

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Searles Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 1,822

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+247.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $118,000 SSMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $128,000 SSMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $145,000 SSMLS
• 1987-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 1984-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $505 · -10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.