6162 Hilton Ln · Mount Morris, MI 48458

$60,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily · 281 Days on market

Built 1969 8,712 sqft lot $74/sqft · 65% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Occupied: This property may be occupied, and the purchaser will be responsible for obtaining possession after closing. DO NOT disturb occupants or trespass. Call listing agent for instructions.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 281 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $444 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 5.6% in Mount Morris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#357 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Beecher Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #722 of 760 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dailey Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,325 of 1,397 statewide, top 99%, 312 students, 96% FRL); Beecher High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #659 of 713 statewide, top 97%, 262 students, 94% FRL).
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.72%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $36,426
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: 64.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6137 Natchez Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0	864 (+6%)	2mo	$65,000	$75	64
2162 W Coldwater Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0	888 (+9%)	9mo	$101,000	$114	63
2166 Armstrong Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0	864 (+6%)	20mo	$89,900	$104	62
6069 Natchez Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	900 (+10%)	2mo	$65,000	$72	56
1297 W Kurtz Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	852 (+4%)	6mo	$38,000	$45	53
5428 Nasser St	0.53mi	3/1.0	854 (+5%)	17mo	$11,500	$13	53
6129 Penwood Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	900 (+10%)	20mo	$22,500	$25	51
5406 Bermuda Ln	0.56mi	3/1.0	864 (+6%)	16mo	$12,200	$14	50
5428 Farmhill Rd	0.50mi	3/1.5	923 (+13%)	9mo	$45,000	$49	45
5395 Stiffler Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	912 (+12%)	6mo	$10,000	$11	44
5383 Nasser St	0.62mi	3/1.0	869 (+6%)	23mo	$70,000	$81	41
6133 Palmetto Dr	0.63mi	3/1.5	900 (+10%)	15mo	$84,200	$94	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $18,575
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $52,643
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48458

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $800/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $444

Break-even live

Break-even rent $514

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $478	-5% $461	+0% $444	+5% $427	+10% $410
Rent	-10% $359	-5% $402	+0% $444	+5% $487	+10% $529
Rate	-1.0pp $474	-0.5pp $459	base $444	+0.5pp $429	+1.0pp $413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6203 Hilton Ln Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	860	$900	$1.05	45d	1	0.12mi
2216 Obrien Rd Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,000	$0.93	15d	1	0.24mi
6113 Natchez Dr Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$990	$0.90	45d	1	0.52mi
6230 Natchez Dr Mount Morris, MI	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,000	$0.94	15d	1	0.57mi
7028 Rosewood Dr Mt Morris, MI	2.0	1.0	967	$1,020	$1.05	15d	1	0.96mi
5280 Cedar Shores Ct Flint, MI	2.0–3.0	2.0	1150	$1,148	$1.00	15d	6	0.99mi
1 Sunny Ln Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	45d	1	1.04mi
514 W Alma Ave Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	894	$925	$1.03	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $60,000 Active 281 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 278 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 277 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 275 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 273 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 272 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 270 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 269 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $60,000 Active 268 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 267 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 263 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 262 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 261 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 260 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 259 DOM
17. 2025-09-13
    listed $60,000 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Occupied: This property may be occupied, and the purchaser will be responsible for obtaining possession after closing. DO NOT disturb occupants or trespass. Call listing agent for instructions.

18. 2025-09-13
    listed $60,000 Active 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Occupied: This property may be occupied, and the purchaser will be responsible for obtaining possession after closing. DO NOT disturb occupants or trespass. Call listing agent for instructions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $862 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$62/yr (+$5/mo · 7.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$800
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,033
• − Management: −$1,033
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $4,645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,115
• After-tax cash flow: $4,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beecher Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2604500
• Math proficiency: 7% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,719
• Composite: 9.96/100
• National rank: #14685
• State rank: #722 of 760 in MI

Livability — Mount Morris

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #9095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beecher, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 19,519
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 19,519
• Household income: $46,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.45%
• Current HPI: 244.2061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-13 Listed $60,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-13 Listed $60,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $800 · +28.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.